NFL Week 14 Coaching Decisions: Titans Embrace Analytics, Rams Stumble Before OT

Occasionally, I feel silly writing about the best and worst coaching decisions in the NFL because hindsight is 20/20. But when it comes to going for two points late in the game for the road team in the midst of a comeback, I’m mostly in favor of it, regardless of the outcome.

Before I offer more support for the analytics-driven move—and it’s not all about numbers—let me share a story from my first year as a Chargers beat reporter in 2018.

Then-Chargers coach Anthony Lynn was asked why he went for a gutsy two-point conversion during a thrilling come-from-behind 29–28 victory against the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. That was the game when Mike Williams went Super Saiyan on Thursday Night Football.

To paraphrase, Lynn wanted to get the hell off the field because his banged-up team was down a few notable starters and couldn’t afford to go overtime against Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. I’m not sure if I’m allowed to use the word hell, but I’m pretty sure Lynn said it.

Now any time I see an ailing road team or a heavy underdog in a close game going for two, I think, “Yup, that team needs to get the hell off the field.”

This situation occurred at least twice in Week 14. Jaguars coach Doug Pederson wasn’t successful after his team’s failed two-point attempt kept the score 31–27 against the Browns with 1:33 left in regulation. It didn’t matter much because the Jaguars didn’t recover the onside kick, but if they did, a field goal would have been enough to steal the game in Cleveland had they converted the two-point attempt.

Many questioned why Pederson didn’t just take the extra point to make it a three-point game. But the Jaguars couldn’t afford the extra snaps in overtime, not with Trevor Lawrence playing on one bad leg and a handful of backups filling in for injured starters.

Titans coach Mike Vrabel, however, was successful with his team’s two-point conversion. That extra point made the difference in why the Titans handed the Dolphins a stunning 28–27 loss Monday night and their first home defeat of the season.

Tennessee (5–8) had no business hanging around with Miami (9–4) after trailing 27–13 with 4:34 left in regulation. After rookie quarterback Will Levis connected with DeAndre Hopkins for a three-yard touchdown pass, Vrabel went for two to make it a six-point game.

The 2-point conversion is GOOD! #ProBowlVote + Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
????: Watch #TENvsMIA on @ESPNNFL pic.twitter.com/uigmtOOzU0

— Titans (Oilers Version) (@Titans) December 12, 2023

Perhaps that two-point conversion gave the Titans an extra shot of confidence because the defense delivered a three-and-out stop and the offense quickly scored to take a one-point lead on a drive that only took 26 seconds off the game clock. With nothing to lose in a lost season, Vrabel coached aggressively and his team responded with 15 unanswered points.

“I think that’s just in the research we’ve done and analytics to give you the best chance to win in regulation, you go for two there,” Vrabel told reporters after the upset win. “I liked the call. That’s how it goes.”

Going for two points in this scenario doesn’t always pay off, but it does lead to many memorable comeback wins.

Here are other coaching decisions we liked and didn’t like in Week 14 of the NFL season.

Calls we liked

Bears’ touchdown pass on fourth down vs. Lions: Bears coach Matt Eberflus might have regretted passing on a pair of fourth-and-short situations in the Week 11 loss to the Lions.

In the second meeting, Eberflus didn’t play conservatively and allowed Justin Fields to make a play on fourth-and-13 with the game tied 13–13 late in the third quarter. Fields rewarded the decision by throwing a 38-yard touchdown strike to DJ Moore and didn’t look back in the 28–13 win.

JUSTIN FIELDS FINDS DJ MOORE ON 4TH DOWN ????

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/rlngViF9np

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) December 10, 2023

Calls we questioned

Rams’ costly miscues against Ravens: The Rams earned plenty of respect in the 37–31 overtime loss to the Ravens, but Sean McVay had a few questionable decisions on the opening and final drives of regulation.

The Rams opened the game with nine consecutive runs to get to the Ravens’ 9-yard line, but that was followed by three consecutive incompletions, forcing Los Angeles to settle for a field goal.

On the final drive, Matthew Stafford quickly moved downfield through the air, but the offense stalled at the Baltimore 18-yard line. McVay struggled to get a play in on the series and was forced to burn his final timeout, eventually leading to the Rams kicking a field goal to go to overtime. McVay later told reporters that he had headset issues, and not just on the play that caused him to use a timeout.

Lions’ poor outing on fourth downs: Dan Campbell’s luck on fourth down might have run out. Or for a better explanation, the offense had poor execution and questionable play calls on fourth down during the loss to the Bears.

Detroit went 1-of-5 on fourth down, including the four-yard loss on a failed Jahmyr Gibbs run on fourth-and-1 from Chicago’s 34-yard line during the fourth quarter. That dashed the Lions’ hopes of producing another late comeback with a 12-point deficit against the Bears. The Lions were held to a season-low 267 yards.