Gov. Ron DeSantis faces an uphill battle as he looks past Iowa, but translating his popularity among Republicans into more votes would help immensely.
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For months, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' campaign has focused on winning Iowa, a state filled with the sort of conservatives and evangelical voters that would normally be drawn to his campaign. It is central to his argument. Last week, he capped off his 99-county tour of Iowa, which he has portrayed a barometer of his dedication to winning the state.
As it stands, he looks poised to lose in Iowa, and lose big.
Trump currently maintains a wide advantage in FiveThirtyEight's weighted polling average of the Iowa GOP caucuses, with the ex-president averaging nearly 46% support, with DeSantis at 19.7% and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley at 17.5%.
If DeSantis is unable to topple Trump in Iowa next month, where does his campaign go from there?
If DeSantis has a respectable showing in Iowa, which would involve him coming in second place, holding Trump below 50%, and picking up some delegates, it would go a long way in assuaging his GOP backers and voters in later primaries and caucuses that his campaign remains viable.
And it would also give him a stronger argument to voters in New Hampshire, who are known to diverge from backing the winner of the Iowa caucuses, as well as voters in South Carolina, where he'll have to contend with Trump's preexisting strength and Haley's base of support from her years in the Governor's Mansion.
But such a path is also filled with complexities.
Haley in recent weeks has surged in New Hampshire, which could put her in second place should Trump win the primary. Also, of all the early GOP primary contests, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has performed the strongest in polling in the Granite State and in recent weeks has pulled ahead of DeSantis.
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A fourth-place finish for DeSantis in New Hampshire, coupled with a second-place finish in Iowa, would be disastrous for DeSantis, but the margin of Trump victories — if they occur — will be important. It's not necessarily the end of the road.
Haley is poised to perform strongly in her home state, especially with fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott out of the presidential race, so DeSantis may struggle to get any sort of bump there.
But DeSantis could argue that the Michigan primary and caucuses, the slew of Super Tuesday contests on March 5, and the Florida primary in late March are better suited for him as he could attract voters less wedded to Trump. And there's a lot at stake in those contests: 55 delegates are up for grabs in Michigan, while 874 delegates are at stake on Super Tuesday and 125 delegates will be available in Florida's winner-take-all primary.
The pressure would undoubtedly be turned up for DeSantis in Florida, as it'd be a must-win state for his prospects.
While Trump still has the strongest bloc of conservative support in the GOP primary, DeSantis has long retained some of the top favorability ratings among any of the presidential contenders.
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In the NBC/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released in late October, Trump earned the backing of 43% of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers, while DeSantis and Haley were tied at second place with 16% support.
But DeSantis had the highest favorability rating among likely caucusgoers, at 69%, with only 26% disapproving. Trump in the survey had a 66% favorable rating, while 32% had an unfavorable view of the former president.
One of DeSantis' biggest issues in the contest is that while he's popular among Republican voters, that popularity isn't translating into votes due to Trump's staying power among the GOP base.
DeSantis has attacked Trump over his hesitation to back strict abortion bans, an issue that normally animates conservatives, but even that has not brought more of them into the Florida governor's fold.
At least not yet.
If DeSantis can find some way to use his overall popularity among Republicans to flip more conservatives to his side before and after the Iowa caucuses, he could conceivably have a path to the nomination.
While Trump has dominated among the party's blue-collar voters, DeSantis for much of the campaign has been a stronger contender among the party's upper-income voters. That could help him in states like California and Colorado, which are filled with the sort of suburban and exurban Republicans who may be reluctant to back the former president again next year.
But if Trump overperforms early, DeSantis may not remain in the race past Super Tuesday if he fears an embarrassing loss in his native Florida.
