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What's your (p)doom? The morbid question making rounds in tech

Our future robot overlords, when p(doom) = 100
  • p(doom) is a term to signal your opinion on the probabilty of AI destroying humanity.
  • A high p(doom) means you're a doomer — you think AI is developing too fast and recklessly.
  • The hot trend in tech apparently is discussing your p(doom) number. 

Adding slang to the English language enriches our lives. How else would we have been able to communicate that "Baby Gronk rizzed up Livy" if not for the Oxford English Dictionary's new word of the year — "rizz?"

A new term is apparently sweeping the tech world: "p(doom)."

It stands for the probability of doom as a math equation — and asking someone for his or her p(doom) means to get their opinion on how likely it is AI will lead to our doom.

The New York Times writes:

It's become a common icebreaker among techies in San Francisco — and an inescapable part of A.I. culture. I've been to two tech events this year where a stranger has asked for my p(doom) as casually as if they were asking for directions to the bathroom.

(I wouldn't totally rule out that these people were, in fact, asking for the "pee room" and were just misheard.)

It's a score out of 100, so: A higher p(doom) — like 80 — means you're an AI "doomer," believing that we're barrelling past a point of no return for AI safety and sealing our fate toward extinction of the human race. A lower p(doom) — say, 5 — means you there's only a 5% chance of doom.

For example, former OpenAI researcher Paul Christiano said in a podcast he believes in a 10% to 20% chance of AI taking over and killing most humans.

Hey, I'll take those odds if it helps me write emails!

While the AI doomerism didn't end up being the exact reason behind the dust-up at OpenAI (that turned out to be purely human interpersonal sniping), the tension is real between those that want to push forward with AI and those like Elon Musk, who think we should pump the brakes on AI.

Me, personally, my p(doom) is very low — maybe 0.05.

I think we humans have a good chance. There's something magic and enduring about humanity that AI will never achieve. I mean, we invented White Claw, and then a zero alcohol version of it!

That's the kind of genius thinking that only a human mind could have.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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