One might think that “Survivor 45” has opened up now that the players found a way to finally oust their unanimous target Bruce Perreault, but a core four of original Reba tribe members could control the game through to the end. Drew Basile, Austin Li Coon, Julie Alley and Dee Valladares have remained strong as an alliance and have a majority four votes together while Katurah Topps and Jake O’Kane are remnants of a Belo tribe left in ruins and Emily Flippen fights for autonomy as the last standing Lulu player.
With idols still in pockets and players eager to leave their strategic mark on the competition, the game will either sail lazily on with Reba staying strong or it will swiftly open up on the heels of betrayal. Can Dee and Austin keep their group together or will Katurah and Emily find more cracks to expose? Below are our power rankings of the Final 7 players with their odds to win as of this writing based on your combined predictions. Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Sound off in the comments below and our reality TV forum.
1. Drew Basile (13/2 odds)
When it comes to the formidable Reba alliance, Drew has been the captain of the ship constantly putting the group back on course as it navigated the waves of turbulent Belo players. Without the safety of idols that Austin has, Drew has had to engineer his protection in the game through relationships to other players in the games. He’s been the strongest at keeping Emily close and making her feel secure and also managed to reel in Jake and Katurah at different times as needed. There are currently no obvious signs that he’s unliked by anyone in the game and so as a finalist he could very well have enough respect and love on the jury to chat his way to a win. His most promising narrative is that he rode the Reba alliance as long as he needed to while also preparing for a plan B should he ever need it.
2. Emily Flippen (11/2 odds)
If you look back at the winners of the “new era,” Emily is a splitting image of all of the strengths that earned them their millions. Like Erika Casupanan she was dismissed very early on and then like Mike Gabler managed to navigate through personality conflicts and earn redemption. Like Maryanne Oketch and Yam Yam Arocho she watched as “strong” players battled each other, leaving her in the middle to choose her side at the most opportune times. Emily’s reward challenge win in episode 10 was narrated very similarly to Yam Yam’s immunity challenge win with the entire tribe sharing in their triumph as if it were their own. All this comparison is to say that Emily’s redemptive arc through the season is what recent juries have found most impressive in finalists and that she’s also managed to create the social connections and make strategic decisions at the same time gives her one of the strongest stories in recent memory.
3. Austin Li Coon (6/1 odds)
On paper, no one is in a stronger position in the game than Austin — he has two immunity idols at his disposal and only a few more chances to use them. The idols should secure him a spot in the final four, but whether he makes it to the Final Tribal Council will largely depend on how much of a threat the others think he is to win. In any other game — think “Big Brother” — it would be to Austin’s credit that he’s never been the target for elimination, but in “Survivor” we have seen time and time again that juries are most impressed by those who play hard, overcome obstacles, and make big moves. In that regard, the idols may be the ball and chain weighing Austin’s chances of winning down. In order to make a case that he out-witted the others Austin may need to become the player that turns on his alliance.
4. Julie Alley (13/2 odds)
There was a moment in episode 10 where it seemed like Julie might be voted out in a ploy to dismantle Reba, but it was merely a ruse to flush out Bruce’s idol. In that ploy, Julie was discussed by Katurah and Emily as a legitimate threat to sit with at the end of the game because of how well-liked she is by everyone. Julie herself described the “mama J” reputation as a double-edged sword that has made the emotional weight of the game very difficult for her. In fact, emotions have been a huge part of Julie’s personal narrative all season, potentially setting her up as the one Reba player that does in fact turn on the others. If Julie does that, she could have an incredibly strong case at the end of the game, but such a decision might also come with the burden of Austin, Dee and Drew sitting on the sidelines as a bitter jury. For that reason, Julie is the perfect player to set in the middle of the rankings with equal opportunity of rising to the top and sinking to the bottom.
5. Dee Valladares (5/1 odds)
If you listened to the odds, Dee should be higher up in the power rankings, but a critical look at the overall narrative of the season contradicts such a placement. No one has been more steadfast in their allegiance to the original Reba tribe than Dee has — compared to Austin and Drew who continue to work with Emily on the side and Julie who has entertained multiple conversations about working with the outsiders against Reba. If we project her into the FTC, Dee has the weakest narrative of all four Reba members and has overcome the least amount of hurdles. Yes, she’s been consistently talked about in every episode since her immunity win as a threat, but that is more of a sign that she’ll eventually be voted out than it is that she can win. Right now, we’d hedge our bets that Dee will find her seat on the jury sooner rather than later.
6. Katurah Topps (13/2 odds)
7. Jake O’Kane (13/2 odds)
Hilariously, Jake has managed to avoid elimination in three consecutive weeks despite being the backup plan each time and while Katurah has never been targeted she’s mostly just fumbled her way through the game by throwing her original tribe under the bus. As the last two Belo players, Katurah and Jake should have a healthy amount of votes waiting for them on the jury, but the reality is that they’re unlikely to get any of them. Both of them tanked their chances at winning during the same TC when in split groups they had the option of forcing Austin’s hands at the drawing of rocks in a tie or working with Reba to vote out Kaleb Gebrewold. Jake voted to force the tie, losing all credibility and trust in the game, and Katurah sided with Reba, taking Belo out of the numbers game and securing an upper hand for Reba. Since then, neither player has had much agency and their leaning in to the slow crumbling of Belo in the votes that followed only served to deepen their own graves.
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