When it comes to the Best Film Drama Actress Golden Globe category, there exists a relatively rich history of women initially achieving the honor on their third attempts. After Shirley MacLaine (“Terms of Endearment”) set that precedent in 1984 (25 years after her earliest loss), her example was emulated by 21st century victors Kate Winslet (“Revolutionary Road,” 2009), Julianne Moore (“Still Alice,” 2015), and Glenn Close (“The Wife,” 2019). Heading into the 81st annual ceremony, there is a remarkably strong chance that this group will soon welcome one of three possible new members: Annette Bening (“Nyad”), Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”), or Saoirse Ronan (“Foe”).
According to Gold Derby’s odds, Mulligan is comfortably leading the 2024 drama actress race with 45% of our thousands of Golden Globes predictors propping her up for the win. Her strongest competitor appears to be potential first-time nominee Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), who is presently expected to land in the lineup alongside fellow category newcomers Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”), Greta Lee (“Past Lives”), and Cailee Spaeny (“Priscilla”), as well as Bening (whose win backing rate is lower than 3%).
Given her 12th place ranking on our predictions list, Ronan is certainly not guaranteed a nomination, but her preexisting Golden Globes resume may give her the boost she needs. Although she came up short on her drama bids in 2016 (“Brooklyn”) and 2020 (“Little Women”), she has achieved one outside win (comedy/musical actress, “Lady Bird,” 2018), which is more than Mulligan can say. However, the “Maestro” star could actually wind up benefiting from her previous complete lack of luck, seeing as how Winslet, Moore, and Close were in the same boat at the times of their long-awaited drama victories.
Bening – who has two comedy wins to her name for “Being Julia” (2005) and “The Kids Are All Right” (2011) – and Ronan now have shots at joining 10 other conquerors of both lead female film categories. At age 65, Bening would surpass Meryl Streep (57 in 2007) as the oldest woman to pull off that feat, while 29-year-old Ronan would supplant Julia Roberts (33 in 2001) as the youngest.
Since spans of eight and 32 years would respectively separate their first drama notices from their possible third ones, Ronan or Bening could also set a new category record for shortest or longest gap between a freshman loss and third-try win. In this regard, Ronan would displace Winslet, who prevailed 11 years after she was initially recognized for “Titanic,” while 1992 (“Bugsy”) and 2000 (“American Beauty”) nominee Bening would bump Close, whose first drama mention for “Fatal Attraction” came 31 years prior to her successful one. By closing her own 14-year gap, 2010 (“An Education”) and 2021 (“Promising Young Woman”) contender Mulligan would fall between Winslet and Moore (15 years).
Unless the upcoming drama actress roster ends up including Roberts (“Leave the World Behind”) or Helen Mirren (“Golda”), any of said two-time losers could be set to follow Moore as this category’s second third-try winner not nominated against any of its past champions. While this would undoubtedly make their paths to victory easier, the question of which one will stand out in the eyes of voters naturally remains unanswerable. Still, at least one is bound to make into the official lineup and, once there, will likely find their familiarity advantageous.
PREDICT the 2024 Golden Globe nominations through December 11
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