It may not have the historic impact of Nixon v. Kennedy, or deliver the memorable lines of Carter v. Reagan, or even Benson “You’re no Jack Kennedy” v. Quayle.
In fact, one of the debaters insists he isn’t even running for president, though no one believes him. The other is indeed running — but so far behind his party’s leader in the polls many don’t believe him either.
Nevertheless, ladies and gentlemen, we present “DeSantis vs. Newsom: The Great Red vs. Blue State Debate,” coming Thursday evening to your cable TV screen or radio hosted and moderated by Fox News Channel host Sean Hannity.
A fair question, given California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis aren’t running against each other for the nation’s highest office, at least not yet.
Newsom has repeatedly insisted he’s not seeking the Democratic Party’s 2024 presidential nomination, has not filed papers to do so and has said he supports the re-election of President Joe Biden and fellow Californian and political ally Vice President Kamala Harris.
DeSantis announced his candidacy for the Republican Party nomination in May, but though he’s consistently out-polled most other Republican contenders, former President Donald Trump still dominates the GOP field. An average of the most recent national Republican Primary polls by FiveThirtyEight puts Trump at nearly 59% and DeSantis at 13%, a figure that has shrunk since the Florida governor’s campaign announcement.
But Sonoma State University Political Science Professor David McCuan said the face-off offers a window into each party’s potential future. Both Newsom and DeSantis figure to remain important figures in their parties as popular big-state governors.
“This debate is all about who and what comes next for each party,” McCuan said. “It should be fascinating — and when is the last time we said that about a political debate?”
Claremont McKenna College American Politics Professor Jack Pitney, Jr. said “the stakes are much higher for DeSantis.”
“He is sinking in the polls and needs some way to revive his primary campaign,” Pitney said.
By contrast, there’s much less at risk for Newsom, since he’s got a little over three years left in office before his next move.
“Even a subpar performance is likely to go down the memory hole long before he seeks office again,” Pitney said.
Even so, political analyst Dan Schnur said, with Biden’s poor polling concerning to many Democrats, Newsom could risk alienating party leaders and donors by thrusting himself into the spotlight debating a potential Biden re-election rival. Recent polls put Biden’s approval at 44% or less, and surveys often include Newsom as a potential alternative.
“Gavin Newsom has to make it clear that he will not run against Joe Biden while at the same time he continues to position himself as Biden’s successor,” Schnur said. “That is not an easy balancing act under the best of circumstances, and Biden’s poll numbers make it even more difficult.”
Fox News Channel said that “focusing on the major issues impacting the country, the debate will examine the vastly different approaches the two governors have and offer insights into their political philosophies as well as ambitions for the nation.”
“Throughout the debate,” Fox said, “Hannity will highlight a variety of issues in each state, including the economy, the border, immigration, crime, and inflation.”
McCuan says DeSantis and Newsom are likely to steer the debate to issues they have repeatedly antagonized each other on.
“Where are the fireworks? I’d suspect two areas — the border, immigration; and around the politics of reproductive rights,” McCuan said. “So what will matter and receive a lot of words? Children. Women. Security. Choice.”
Newsom this month paid for ads in Florida hammering DeSantis for signing a ban on abortions after six weeks of gestation, said to correspond with when the baby has a detectable heartbeat. It shows a woman and a doctor with a sign indicated they are “Wanted” for possible arrest “by order of Governor Ron DeSantis.”
DeSantis has sent migrant border crossers to Sacramento to rip Newsom over how California’s welcome mat as a “sanctuary state” is fueling an illegal immigration surge at the southern border that critics have linked to human and drug trafficking.
The 90-minute debate, to take place in the Atlanta suburb of Alpharetta, Georgia, will be presented live without an audience. Hannity will then provide live reaction with a panel of guests for the next half hour.
Pitney said that as so often is the case in debates, the winner may well have more to do with how each candidate comes across than with the substance of their arguments and debating points. Newsom has the advantage there.
“Newsom tends to be very good on television,” Pitney said. “DeSantis’s performances have ranged from adequate to terrible. I will be watching for demeanor. Will Newsom be his usual calm, confident self? Will DeSantis be humorless and snappish?”
But debate points matter too, and the Sunshine State beats the Golden State in a host of key metrics, Pitney said, including homelessness, crime, unemployment, education, road conditions, business tax climate and poverty. Perhaps most tellingly, he said, “people are voting with their feet” — between 2020 and 2022, the Census reports, California saw a net population loss while Florida had a net gain.
“Watch for the duel of the statistics,” Pitney said. “How will DeSantis use these statistics? How will Newsom counterattack?”
The debate airs from 6-7:30 p.m. Pacific time during a two-hour edition of Hannity on Fox News Channel and will be simulcast on Fox News Radio. If you don’t have cable, you can listen on the Fox News app or find local Fox Radio stations, including San Francisco’s KSFO-AM 560 AM.
