Usually, if a film performance earns BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG Award notices, it’s practically guaranteed Oscar recognition, but that isn’t always the case. Since 2002 (when the Critics Choice Association began incorporating official nominations into their annual honors), 10 (or about 4%) of the hundreds of actors and actresses with flawless major precursor showings have somehow managed to incur film academy snubs. Of course, it’s impossible to pinpoint what factors influence these decisions, but one can speculate based on the similarities said unfortunate performers share.
At least one entrant has been added to this list of snubees in eight of the last 12 years, indicating an indefinite continuation of the practice that was once unheard of. Indeed, Oscar prognosticators can no longer avoid taking potential slights of this kind into consideration, and they would be wise to anticipate at least one annual example. Since the group has expanded by 43% in the last two years alone, such an expectation is more than justified.
The first individual to suffer this fate was Tilda Swinton, who was left out of the 2012 Best Actress Oscar lineup despite receiving consistent industry recognition for her work in “We Need to Talk About Kevin.” The next year, she was followed by Marion Cotillard, whose lead French language performance in “Rust and Bone” is the only non-English one on this list. Then came Emma Thompson (“Saving Mr. Banks,” 2014), whose film differs from the previous two in that it actually earned an Oscar nomination (Best Original Score).
Also in 2014, this club gained its first male member when Daniel Brühl missed out on a Best Supporting Actor bid for “Rush.” While it can be argued that he was preceded by Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Departed,” 2007), he has been left off the list due to his inconsistent precursor category placement and his conciliatory same-year Oscar notice for “Blood Diamond.”
In 2015, Best Actor hopeful Jake Gyllenhaal was snubbed for “Nightcrawler” even though the film merited an above-the-line Oscar mention for its original screenplay. Two years later, many were left baffled by the exclusion of “Arrival” star Amy Adams, a then-five-time acting nominee whose movie picked up a whopping eight Oscar notices (including one for Best Picture) and ended up winning Best Sound Editing.
The latest male instance involved 2019 supporting contender Timothée Chalamet (“Beautiful Boy”), who failed to establish an expected hot streak after landing a lead bid for “Call Me By Your Name” one year earlier. Recently, the group has grown to include leads Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci,” 2022) and Viola Davis (“The Woman King,” 2023) and featured actress Caitriona Balfe (“Belfast,” 2022). “House of Gucci” did net one Oscar nomination for its makeup, while “Belfast” received seven, one of which led to a win (Best Original Screenplay).
Naturally, it’s difficult to say which actual Oscar nominees took these hopefuls’ spots, so to speak, but one can reasonably point to those who got in in spite of one or more precursor hiccups, such as 2023 Best Actress competitors Ana de Armas (“Blonde”), Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”), and Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”). Riseborough gained infamy by landing in the lineup after flying under the radar of all four of said other organizations, but the same is true of nine earlier Oscar nominees from 2012 on, including Balfe’s “Belfast” cast mate, Judi Dench. Most of these lucky individuals were recognized for their work in Best Picture contenders, with the exceptions of Laura Dern (“Wild,” 2015), Penélope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers,” 2022), and Riseborough.
It is well worth noting that none of said Oscar snubees actually won any of the four preceding prizes, perhaps signaling the misfortune that was to come. Although consistently competing for but not collecting any industry hardware didn’t halt the Oscar nominations of actors such as Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman,” 2021), Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog,” 2022), and Bill Nighy (“Living,” 2023), it appears to have created a hurdle in terms of actually clinching the top honor.
Whether or not a new snub example will emerge in 2024 remains to be seen, but historical precedent indicates that at least five performers will show up on all four major precursor ballots. From there, most of them can expect to have reason to celebrate on Oscar nominations morning, but none can necessarily count on that outcome.
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