If only Liverpool had beaten Toulouse three weeks ago instead of making a mess of things by losing, tomorrow night’s game against LASK would be a light-hearted kickabout with top spot in our Europa League group already sewn up.
Despite that setback in France, though, the Reds still firmly have their destiny in their own hands and could finish the job against the Austrian outfit at Anfield.
We’ve dissected all the possible permutations from Europa League Group E to determine how Jurgen Klopp’s men can ensure their place in the knockout stages this week, or possibly wrap up first place and duly go straight into the round of 16 in March, thus bypassing February’s play-off phase.
Firstly, a reminder of the group table as it currently stands (via UEFA.com):
…and Toulouse beat Union Saint-Gilloise: LFC would be guaranteed a top two finish, but would still need a point away to Union SG to be confirmed as group winners.
…and Toulouse v Union SG is a draw: we’d be confirmed as group winners tomorrow night.
…and Union SG beat Toulouse: we’d be confirmed as group winners tomorrow night.
…and Toulouse beat Union SG: LFC would be guaranteed a top two finish, but would need to match or better Toulouse’s result away to LASK on matchday 6 to top the group. If we finish level on points with Toulouse, our superior head-to-head result would give us the edge.
…and Toulouse v Union SG is a draw: we’d be guaranteed top two finish, but would still need a point against Union SG to be confirmed as group winners.
…and Union SG beat Toulouse: we’d be guaranteed top two finish, but would still need a point against Union SG to be confirmed as group winners. Even if LFC, Union and Toulouse all finish on 10 points, the ensuing mini-league of mutual results to determine final group positions would see us finish second at worst.
…and Toulouse beat Union SG: LFC would be guaranteed a top two finish unless LASK win by more than two goals at Anfield, thus putting them ahead of us in the head-to-head stakes. We’d still progress regardless if LASK fail to beat Toulouse on matchday 6, although we’d need to better Toulouse’s result v LASK if we’re to top the group, so a draw between those two would be most ideal in that case.
…and Toulouse v Union SG is a draw: we’d be guaranteed a top two finish, as Union couldn’t then finish above us and, with Toulouse and LASK playing each other on matchday 6, only one could then go above us in the final standings. A win in Belgium would still see us top the group, while a point would also be good enough unless Toulouse beat LASK, or LASK win their remaining matches and beat us by more than two goals at Anfield
…and Union SG beat Toulouse: we’d need a point away to Union SG to ensure qualification, although we’d still qualify regardless unless Toulouse beat LASK on matchday 6, or LASK win their remaining matches and beat us by more than two goals at Anfield.
Despite all the mental arithmetic, the equation for Liverpool tomorrow night is simple – win, and our Europa League hopes continue into the spring.
Ideally Union SG can also get something against Toulouse so that top spot is sealed before we go to Belgium in two weeks’ time. With that fixture falling less than 72 hours before we play Manchester United, it’d be a welcome luxury if there were nothing riding on the final European group game from a Reds perspective.
We missed a chance to get the job done in France three weeks ago. Let’s not look that gift horse in the mouth again this week!
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