What do Man Utd need to do to qualify for last-16 of Champions League? Permutations explained

MANCHESTER UNITED will face Galatasaray TONIGHT in their penultimate group stage game.

Erik ten Hag‘s side face an uphill battle to qualify for the last-16 of Europe’s elite competition.

Man Utd are bottom of Group A with just one win and three losses from their four Champions League games this season.

The Red Devils were on the end of a dramatic 4-3 loss to Copenhagen last time out.

Man Utd’s defeat to the Danes on Matchday 4 meant that their Champions League fate is no longer in their own hands.

What do Man Utd need to do to qualify for last-16 of the Champions League?

The Red Devils can only qualify for the last-16 of the Champions League by finishing second in Group A.

That is because Bayern Munich have already confirmed their title as group winners as the German giants have 12 points after winning all four of their games.

If Man Utd lose against Galatasaray

Should Man Utd lose against Galatasaray on Matchday 5 they will be OUT of the Champions League as the Turkish giants go four points ahead with only three left to play for.

If Man Utd win against Galatasaray

If Man Utd beat Galatasaray on their own turf, they would go up to six points and would qualify for the last-16 with a win against Bayern in their final game unless Copenhagen overcome the Germans and Galatasaray in their final two matches.

Should Ten Hag’s side claim all three points in Istanbul but lose to the Germans in their final game, they would need Bayern to win against the Danes and there not to be a winner in Copenhagen vs Galatasaray.

If Man Utd draw with Galatasaray

A draw in Istanbul and Bayern beating Copenhagen would mean a win over Thomas Tuchel’s side at Old Trafford would result in the Red Devils qualifying for the last-16 if Galatasaray fail to win against Copenhagen.

Should the Danes draw in Munich and the Red Devils triumph over Bayern in their final Group A game, that would see them progress if Copenhagen vs Galatasaray ends in a draw.

If the Turkish side beat the Danes in Gameweek 6 after drawing with Man Utd, they will go through to the knockout stages.

If Man Utd draw in Istanbul and then beat Bayern and Copenhagen win their final group stage game after losing their penultimate Group A match, they would be both on seven points, but Ten Hag’s side would go through with a better head-to-head record as they have scored more away goals in the matches between the two.

What happens if Man Utd, Galatasaray and Copenhagen all finish on 7 points in Group A?

Remarkably, Man Utd, Galatasaray and Copenhagen could all finish on 7 points in Group A.

Here is how each team’s final two matches would need to play out:

• Copenhagen beat Bayern, then lose to Galatasaray.
• Galatasaray lose to Man Utd, then beat Copenhagen.
• Man Utd beat Galatasaray, then draw with Bayern.

Teams that finish level on points in the Champions League group stage are sorted by the following criteria.

Unlike the Premier League – which uses goal difference when teams are tied on points – the Champions League separates the teams on head-to-head points among the two fixtures between the sides.

1. Points in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
2. Goal difference in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
3. Goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
4. Away goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
5. Goal difference in all group matches;
6. Goals scored in all group matches;
7. Away goals scored in all group matches;
8. Wins in all group matches;
9. Away wins in all group matches;
10. Disciplinary points (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
11. UEFA club coefficient.

Which teams have already qualified for the last-16 of the Champions League?

Here are all the teams that have qualified for the knockout stages so far:

• Bayern Munich
• Real Madrid
• Real Sociedad
• Inter Milan
• Manchester City
• RB Leipzig
• Atletico Madrid
• Lazio
• Borussia Dortmund
• FC Barcelona