The Metropolitan Transportation Commission is developing a proposal for a new regional transportation measure with a goal of collecting about $1 billion annually.
Spending priorities of the potential measure include transit improvement, safe streets, connectivity and climate resilience. The priorities are based on taxpayer polling and stakeholder feedback, MTC staff said.
The proposal was presented to the Transportation Authority of Marin’s executive committee at its meeting on Nov. 13.
The measure would require a two-thirds majority vote to pass, but a lot of the plan’s details haven’t come into clear focus yet, said David Chan, director of programming and legislation at TAM.
It’s not decided what type of tax voters will be asked to approve. MTC staff are considering a half-cent sales tax, a 0.17% income tax, a 0.36% payroll tax, a 1.52-cent-per-mile road usage charge and other methods.
Chan said a sales tax measure could be difficult to pass in Marin because no Marin agency can exceed a rate of 9.25%. That rate is the sum of a 7.25% state tax and maximum of 2% in local taxes.
Larkspur, San Anselmo, San Rafael and Sausalito have reached the limit. Corte Madera and Fairfax tax rates are a quarter percent short.
In order to pass the measure as a sales tax, there would need to be legislative exemption to exceed the threshold. Officials of cities that are already at the limit could sponsor individual legislation for an exemption, or choose to opt out of the measure.
Urban Carmel, a TAM committee member representing the Mill Valley City Council, said he is concerned about how many taxes Marin residents face.
The measure “would really need to demonstrate what people are going to get from this and in very, very concrete terms,” he said.
“Are we going to get bus services that are actually every 20 minutes, or are we going to get what we have today where there’s literally zero buses in the middle of the day?” he said.
“For jurisdictions that have been really mindful for how they managed their sales tax, the thought of overriding it, that’s going to be incredibly problematic,” said Brian Colbert, chair of the TAM committee and a San Anselmo Town Council member.
Chan said the MTC is exploring scenarios where the tax does not apply to all nine Bay Area counties. The tax would have to apply to no fewer than five counties.
However, he said, that raises questions about equity. It could potentially create a situation where some jurisdictions are benefiting from taxes they aren’t paying for, he said.
Marin County Supervisor Katie Rice, a TAM committee member, said the pandemic changed work and commute patterns and it hasn’t settled down yet.
“No one really knows what the future is going to look like and the discussion needs to acknowledge that, frankly,” Rice said.
The plan was also presented to the Joint MTC ABAG Legislation Committee at a meeting on Nov. 3. ABAG is the Association of Bay Area Governments.
“This effort really builds upon Plan Bay Area 2050 and the Transit Transformation Action Plan, which both underscore the need for new regional monies to improve the financial picture for transportation, while also incentivizing key policy goals,” David Vautin, an MTC official, told the committee.
Plan Bay Area 2050 is a 30-year plan to increase housing in the region, expand transit capacity and contribute to the job market. The plan has identified a $110 billion funding gap needed to execute its vision, Vautin said.
The goal of the measure is to protect and enhance transit service by creating a reliable, long-term regional source of transit operating revenue. It is also to make transit safer and faster. The plan would involve safety and access improvements for cyclists and pedestrians, including signal timing and pothole repairs.
Legislation committee members said the goal is not prescriptive enough.
“We have to talk about what it is we want,” said Jim Spering, a committee member representing Solano County. “I think MTC has to be really bold and I think we have to be aggressive and we have to clearly understand what system do we want.”
Nick Josefowitz, a committee member representing San Francisco, said recent polling indicates there isn’t really an appetite for transportation tax measures. He said he is concerned about spending time and money on developing a measure that could fail.
Additionally, Josefowitz said the working draft of the measure talks about “closing gaps,” “relieving bottlenecks,” “interchange modernization” and other efforts that he said are “euphemisms for highway widening,” which he said worsens traffic and has a negative impact on climate change.
“The amount of money that we’re talking about in this measure is so large that even if we have 20% of the funding going to this stuff that’s billions and billions of dollars that’s just making our problems worse,” he said. “We can’t afford to do that.”
John Goodwin, a spokesperson for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, said it plans to seek authorization from the Legislature to place the measure on the ballot. The target election season is November 2026.
A final proposal is expected to be presented to the Joint MTC ABAG Legislation Committee at its meeting Dec. 8. The Metropolitan Transportation Commission board is expected to consider approval of the plan at its Dec. 20 meeting.
