Alexander Payne‘s movies often fare well in the writing categories at the Oscars with four out his six films so far nominated for either Best Original Screenplay or Best Adapted Screenplay.
His first movie, “Election,” was nominated for only Adapted Screenplay in 2000 after it turned Tom Perrotta’s 1998 novel of the same name into a film. Payne was nominated with his writing partner Jim Taylor, although they lost to John Irving for “The Cider House Rules.” “Sideways” then picked up five nominations in 2005 including an Adapted Screenplay bid for Payne and Taylor after they turned Rex Pickett’s 2004 novel of the same name into a hit movie. Payne and Taylor won this time around.
In 2012, “The Descendants” repeated the record of “Sideways,” matching five nominations and one Adapted Screenplay victory. This time, Payne won alongside Nat Faxon and Jim Rash. They adapted the 2007 novel of the same name from Kaui Hart Hemmings. “Nebraska” marked the first time a Payne movie was nominated for its writing without Payne having actually done the writing himself. Bob Nelson was nominated for Original Screenplay in 2014, although he lost to Spike Jonze for “Her.” Those are the Payne four movies nominated for writing with “About Schmidt” and “Downsizing” the only two to miss out. “Downsizing,” by the way, is the only Payne movie to miss out on Oscar nominations altogether.
However, Payne is poised to make a return to the Oscars this year with his new film “The Holdovers.” The Focus Features release follows Paul Giamatti, who previously starred in “Sideways,” as a school teacher who is tasked with looking after the students who stay behind during the Christmas break. The tender, touching, sweet film is a treat of a movie and very much sees Payne return to form. Giamatti gives a knockout performance while Da’Vine Joy Randolph is a hot contender for Best Supporting Actress for her role as a cook mourning the death of her son. The movie’s strongest point, however, is its writing.
Payne isn’t on writing duties here. Instead, “Whiskey Cavalier” creator and “Black-Ish” and “American Dad!” scribe David Hemingson is the penman responsible for the affecting writing. Hemingson has never been nominated for an Oscar before but we predict that that will change this year. In fact, we don’t just think he’ll be nominated. We think Hemingson will win Best Original Screenplay outright ahead of fellow predicted nominees “Past Lives,” “Barbie,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” and “Maestro.”
This would be a classic Original Screenplay win, too, as it has the hallmarks of many winning screenplays in this category. Firstly, it features a stellar actor in a plum of a role that demonstrates fantastic character development and arc. Similar films that won in this category include “Green Book” in 2019 (Peter Farrelly, Brian Currie, and Nick Vallelonga), “Manchester by the Sea” in 2019 (Kenneth Lonergan), and “Birdman” in 2015 (Armando Bo, Alexander Dinelaris Jr., Nicolás Giacobone, and Alejandro G. Iñárritu). Plus, this form of melancholic writing is a genre loved by the academy. Touching, heartwarming comedy dramas always do well. “Belfast” won in 2022 (Kenneth Branagh), “Her” in 2014 (Jonze), “Juno” in 2008 (Diablo Cody), and “Little Miss Sunshine” in 2007 (Michael Arndt).
Original Screenplay is almost always nominated to a Best Picture nominee. In fact, the last 18 winners have all been Best Picture nominees. The last winner in this category not to be an Oscar nominee was “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” in 2005 (Charlie Kaufman, Pierre Bismuth, and Michel Gondry). Luckily for Hemingson, we predict that “The Holdovers” will be nominated for Best Picture. “The Holdovers,” seems like a great bet to win Best Original Screenplay as the film fits the profile of typical winners in this category, it will have the weight of being a Best Picture nominee behind it, and voters love Payne movies and their writing, in particular. This one feels like a no-brainer.
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