When Houston last clashed with the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Texans had three backups fortifying their offensive line: left tackle, left guard, and center. The reshuffle in their lineup is particularly significant for this matchup.
A critical aspect to watch is how the Texans exploit the Jaguars’ defensive weaknesses, especially against 21 personnel formations. The Jaguars have struggled defensively in this area, ranking 27th in EPA per play and 29th in success rate against passes from 21 personnel. The Texans, who use 21 personnel at the fourth-highest rate in the league, could find a tactical edge here, drawing inspiration from Kyle Shanahan‘s 49ers and insights from Bobby Slowik‘s coaching strategies from last season.
On the Jaguars’ side, much depends on the protection of quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence exhibits one of the most significant performance disparities under pressure in the NFL. When pressured, his rankings plummet to 39th in EPA per attempt, 37th in completion rate, and 34th in yards per attempt. However, he surges to the top eight in these categories in a clean pocket. The Houston Texans’ defense, with its average pressure rate, will aim to disrupt Lawrence, though he can deftly navigate their secondary when given time.
This game promises to be an intriguing and dynamic contest, with strategic nuances playing a crucial role. The potential for offensive fireworks from both teams suggests that the game might surpass the total points expected. This matchup is a test of skill and a chess match of tactical acumen.
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