As a recession fails to materialize, some economists are changing their tune

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is supposed to give insight into where the economy’s headed – that’s what the “leading” part means. That index fell in October, according to The Conference Board, which says that’s a sign of a coming recession.

Thing is, the index has been falling for 19 months — and so far, no recession. Turns out, a lot of economists have been updating their forecasts lately.

Earlier this year, The Conference Board was predicting that we’d be in a recession right now.

“It seems like the timeframe has been shifting,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board.

We’re not in a recession, she said, because consumer spending stayed way stronger than expected.

That could change, Zabinska-La Monica noted — especially now that student loan payments have resumed.

She’s still forecasting a recession early next year, but if it happens, it’ll probably be short. “Because we don’t see a dramatic decline in manufacturing, in housing,” she said.

Plus, inflation is coming down and the labor market is still pretty tight.

Matthew Martin, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said he is no longer forecasting a recession. As of this month, that is.

“While we still see unemployment increasing and labor conditions begin to soften, we think the most likely chance is a soft landing now,” he said.

Martin added if the economic data keeps surprising him, he’ll have no problem updating his forecasts. Again.