Gradually “Maestro” star Bradley Cooper is catching up to front-runner Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) in our Oscar odds for Best Actor. Cooper recently passed Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon“) to take over second place in the overall forecasts. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Because now Cooper has the most Expert journalists betting on him to win.
As of this writing nine of those top journos from major media outlets say Cooper will prevail for playing the titular musical maestro, Leonard Bernstein, compared to eight who say Murphy will prevail as “Oppenheimer’s” title nuclear scientist. Cooper has the benefit of an emotionally showy biographical role where he gets to play his character across several decades. Cooper also has a big Oscar IOU with nine career nominations but no wins as of yet. And he may get extra credit from voters for also writing, directing and producing his film. (If he’s nominated for all four of his roles on “Maestro,” that would bring him to 13 nominations.)
The Experts aren’t the only ones leaning Cooper’s way. He’s also backed by seven out of 11 Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby. Our Top 24 Users and All-Star Top 24 remain heavily in favor of Murphy, but “Oppenheimer” was out over the summer while “Maestro” doesn’t open in theaters until November 22 and won’t stream on Netflix until December 20, so those elite users may yet swing this race towards Cooper in the coming weeks as more of them see the film.
This may not just be a two-way race, though. Two Experts apiece are predicting DiCaprio, Colman Domingo (“Rustin”) and Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”), while Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”) and Joaquin Phoenix (“Napoleon”) are backed by one Expert each. That’s a lot of different ways that this race could still turn.
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