A weak front will move through today, giving us a wind shift, but not much else. Temperatures will be slightly cooler for the weekend, with highs in the lower 70s today, but no significant change is expected. We'll continue to see a mix of clouds and sun through the day on Sunday.
By Monday, however, we'll start to see a more active weather pattern. A low pressure will develop to our north, increasing southerly winds and creating atmospheric lift across the area. A few storms could be possible on Monday as a warm front lifts northward across the state. A severe threat could be possible across northern portions of the state.
The main front, associated with this low, moves through Tuesday morning, giving Acadiana a round of storms. The aforementioned low-pressure system, which will also be responsible for any wind shear in the atmosphere, looks to move to the northeast and weaken a bit by Tuesday. I'm hopeful this will lessen the wind dynamics on Tuesday morning as the main line of storms will be moving through, keeping any severe weather threat quite low. This system is still a few days out, however, so we will have to watch the evolution of this system through the weekend.
Cooler air is expected to come in on Wednesday and Thanksgiving day. The forecast, in terms of rain chances, is a bit uncertain. The GFS model keeps us dry through Thanksgiving, but the European model develops a low-pressure system along the old frontal boundary in the Gulf, spreading more rainfall our way for Thanksgiving day.
As of now, my forecast will reflect the drier GFS model solution, but changes to the forecast will be possible.
