Let’s bank on Odell Beckham Jr. in primetime.
The Ravens host the Bengals in what should be a fun Thursday Night Football game. Both teams are coming off close, high-scoring losses, and the division suddenly looks wide open. SI Sportsbook has the game total set at 45.5 with the home team favored by -3.5. I expect both quarterbacks to play well, but I am avoiding any action on the signal-callers. Lamar Jackson’s TD prop is set at 1.5, but the payout isn’t very attractive at +105. If you can find it at +125 or better, maybe take a shot. He threw a pair of scores in Week 2 vs. the Bengals, however he has only exceeded this prop three times this season.
Here are my favorite early values on the board.
Over the last three games played, the Bengals have allowed an average of 100 receiving yards per game and 10.75 yards per target to the tight end position with an 82.1% catch rate (Dalton Schultz, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle). For the season, they have allowed 67 yards per game, 8.72 yards per target and an 80% catch rate. This is a smash spot for the elite tight end, who is averaging 58 receiving yards per game with a 22% target rate this season He also owns a team-high 25.5% of the Ravens’ receiving yards and 5.28 yards after the catch.
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Beckham has exceeded this prop in four of the last five games played, and he could easily exceed this prop in a single catch. The Bengals have allowed a ridiculous 332 passing yards per game across the last three contests -- including 350-plus yard games to Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud. Across the past two games, Beckham has been targeted at the same rate as Zay Flowers, and he has the most receiving yards among Baltimore receivers not named Mark Andrews.
Mixon logged 36 receiving yards in Week 2 when these two teams squared off and he’s exceeded this prop in three of the last four games. Mixon is averaging more than four targets per game, and with Tee Higgins unlikely to go, Mixon is another pass-catching weapon for Burrow in a game where the Bengals are expected to be playing from behind.
Related: Bengals vs. Ravens Week 11 Odds, Best Bets and Predictions
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