With 10 players remaining in the quest to become “Survivor 45” champ, the competition finally turns to a truly individual game when Episode 8, “Following a Dead Horse to Water,” airs on Wednesday, November 15. In the last two weeks, the merged tribes of Belo, Reba and Lulu had group immunity or were split when it came to the vote, so this will be the first time that every player is vulnerable to elimination. Original Reba, consisting of Austin Li Coon, Dee Valladares, Drew Basile and Julie Alley, have a numbers advantage so long as original Lulu member Emily Flippen and Belo turncoat Katurah Topps continue to work with them. That would leave the remaining Belo players, Bruce Perreault, Jake O’Kane, Kellie Nalbandian and Kendra McQuarrie, as the odd ones out.
Whether tribal lines stick and for how long, there are bound to be peaks and valleys in each player’s struggle to gain power in the game. Below are our power rankings of the final 10 players with their odds to win as of this writing based on your combined predictions. Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Sound off in the comments below and our reality TV forum.
1. Austin Li Coon (9/2 odds)
2. Drew Basile (62/1 odds)
Having successfully extended the power of his Reward Advantage to a fully-fledged idol and sharing a Steal a Vote (that could become an idol0 with Kellie, Austin has the most potential to execute big moves. With a Reba advantage currently, Austin should be able to skate through a few more Tribal Councils without having to use his idol, meaning he could find himself in the final seven or six with one or two idols that could realistically secure his spot in the final four. While Austin and Drew are working really close together, Austin has the upper hand because of the advantages and that leaves Drew vulnerable to being viewed as riding coattails. So even if Drew makes it to the final four with Austin, how much respect is he going to have from the jury?
3. Emily Flippen (39/10 odds)
Running right alongside Austin and Drew is Emily, the last remaining Lulu player in the game. Unlike Drew, Emily already has a huge story to tell for why she would be deserving of the win (if she makes it to the end) — she was counted out of the game very early on and managed to rewrite her story to put herself in a better position. Emily’s biggest vulnerability in the game is her lack of connection to any of the Belo players, but if Reba sticks together to take them out in the next few votes, then Emily will be the most valuable swing vote that would give Austin and Drew the edge over the Dee and Julie pair.
4. Kellie Nalbandian (15/2 odds)
Austin said something vitally important about Kellie’s chances in the game when he said that he wants to keep her in the game a bit longer because of their shared advantage. He knows that if Kellie goes too soon then everyone will know the advantage upgraded to an idol and that will put a major target on his back. For that reason alone, it seems as though Kellie may be shielded from being an early target of the Reba majority and can potentially become a swing vote if left as the last remaining Belo player. Aside from that, Kellie has been included in the narration of the game in almost every episode, strongly indicating that she plays an important part through to the end of the season.
5. Katurah Topps (14/1 odds)
Katurah made what can only be described as an “intriguing” decision when she decided to jump ship and vote with the Reba members against Kaleb in the merge-split vote. It is true that the revelation of Bruce’s idol that all of Belo kept from her indicated that she was at the bottom of that alliance, but it is also true that she’s now placed herself at the bottom of the Reba alliance and potentially alienated herself even more from Belo. If the Reba four stick together and include Katurah in their plans then realistically Emily and Katurah could become valuable to either of the Reba pairs as swing votes, but it’s unclear if Katurah has thought that far ahead. There is no better place for her than in the middle of the rankings because she has placed herself in exactly that position.
6. Julie Alley (35/1 odds)
7. Dee Valladares (18/5 odds)
While Reba has the numbers advantage, it still feels surface level. They were quicker than Belo to turn on their own, making very early moves against Sifu, and there is a clear siding of pairs — Julie/Dee and Austin/Drew. What puts the Julie/Dee pair lower on the totem of power is that Dee has the biggest target on her back. Not only was Dee successful in the first individual immunity challenge, but she also is very vocal about what direction she wants votes to go. Not only will no one want to go to the end with Dee, but they will not want to let her get close. For that reason, Julie is likely to outlast Dee, but without Dee where will Julie’s allegiance flock to? She could float to the end as a swing vote, but that wouldn’t be a strategy that will award her a win at the end of the game.
8. Jake O’Kane (13/2 odds)
9. Kendra McQuarrie (42/1 odds)
10. Bruce Perreault (97/1 odds)
Because of Katurah’s vote against Belo/Kaleb, Jake was directly left out and Kendra is lacking one more person she was willing to work with in a potential move against Bruce. While the move to target Bruce is likely still to happen, Belo is on the back foot in the numbers race any way you look at it. As shown in the previews for the next episode, if the women band together (even if just for one vote) then it will mean immediate trouble for Bruce. Once Bruce is gone, the easy votes will be Kendra and Jake, the two Belo members with the least connection to Reba.
Be sure to make your predictions to influence our reality TV racetrack odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before the next episode airs on CBS. You’ll compete to win eternal bragging rights and a spot on our “Survivor 45” leaderboard. See our contest rules and sound off with other fans in our reality TV forum. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.
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