Tim Scott told a Fox News audience on November 12 that he was suspending his presidential candidacy in an announcement that reportedly took his campaign staff by surprise. But it’s been obvious for weeks now that the South Carolina senator was going nowhere fast; he recently shut down much of his campaign operation to focus solely on a frantic effort to gain traction in Iowa. Even there, though, polls have shown him running a distant fourth behind Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and his frenemy Nikki Haley.
In retrospect, Scott’s candidacy was caught in a fatal contradiction between his reputation as a “sunny, optimistic” politician who could cure the GOP of its reputation for racism, xenophobia, and sheer nastiness, and his hard-core right-wing message, intensified by a path to the nomination that depended heavily on Christian nationalist voters. Nobody outdid Scott in hostility to legalized abortion, LGBTQ+ equality, and public education; this “sunny” senator regularly accused Joe Biden and his “radical left” allies of consciously seeking to destroy America. When auto workers went on strike, his first impulse was to suggest they all be fired. But he remained “upbeat.” He ultimately came across as a wasp without a sting, particularly in the three debates where he barely registered his presence. In a party thirsty for conquest and vengeance, the Scott persona just didn’t work.
His withdrawal now leaves just two rivals, DeSantis and Haley, pursuing the chance to continue a long-shot challenge to front-runner Donald Trump. Yes, there is a third candidate with enough personal money and marginal polling support to perhaps hang around a while longer, but Vivek Ramaswamy is increasingly self-marginalized as a Trump cat’s-paw and agent provocateur; he is not a serious challenger. Neither is Chris Christie, the extremely unpopular anti-Trump candidate who is unlikely to qualify for the next Republican debate.
There is no question that the once-powerful DeSantis candidacy will die a quick death if the Floridian fails to finish second in Iowa, where he’s concentrated his resources and has had the most success in building a strong organization and attracting elite support. Even a bad poll or two from that state could do him in (as he appears to realize; he is now attacking the reliability of polls on the stump in Iowa). Perhaps Haley could survive a third-place showing in Iowa given her strength in New Hampshire and her native South Carolina, but unless she and DeSantis cut deeply into Trump’s massive lead nationally and in the early states, it won’t much matter. The culling of the field may create a sole challenger, but with Trump exhibiting near-supermajority support (he’s at 58.5 percent in the latest RealClearPolitics national polling averages), it won’t take him long to nail down the nomination.
If Haley and DeSantis are counting on prosecutors, judges, and juries to knock the overwhelming front-runner down just enough to make him vulnerable, they’d better pray for the speedy administration of justice. As it is, their electability arguments against Trump have been shredded by recent general-election polling showing the 45th president in excellent shape to become the 47th. Republican voters have auditioned a large number of candidates and sent several of them packing. The end is near for those still shakily standing.
