Sunday, Fun Day! It’s time to get in your player prop selections for Week 10 at SI Sportsbook. There are four teams on bye this week, but there are still plenty of ways to get in on the action. Here are some of my favorite early values for Sunday’s slate.
I’m not just choosing this prop because C.J. Stroud threw five touchdowns vs. this Buccaneers defense, I’m also considering the fact that Levis threw four touchdown passes in his NFL debut two weeks ago vs. the Falcons. After not tossing a touchdown in Week 9, I’ll bet on Levis bouncing back with a pair at a nice +145 payout.
You’re probably noticing a theme here. We are backing rookie quarterbacks this Sunday. Stroud is coming off a five-touchdown game, and though the Bengals actually have not allowed many passing touchdowns this season, the Texans don’t have much of a run game. Even with potentially no Nico Collins, Stroud has enough weapons with Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown. Robert Woods returned to practice this week, too, so I am all in on another plus-money bet.
Yes, I know Murray is coming back from an ACL tear. Still, I think we see Murray use his legs in his first game back in action vs. a Falcons team that has allowed an average of 24 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks. Murray exceeded this prop in seven of nine games played in 2022, and, for what it’s worth, Joshua Dobbs exceeded this prop in five of eight games played in this offensive system.
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If we are betting on Levis, we are betting on Hopkins, too. Nuk has seen a 23.5% target share and a 40.2% air-yard share with Levis under center. That translated to 17 targets for 188 yards and three touchdowns in the past two contests. Hopkins has exceeded this prop in two of his last four, and the Bucs have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing wideouts this year, for an average of 206 per game.
I promise this is the last prop for the Titans game, but I can’t pass this one up either. Henry has seen four targets in each of the two contests played with Levis, and he’s exceeded this prop in both. He’s also exceeded this prop in six of eight games played this season, and the Buccaneers are allowing an average of 31 receiving yards per game to running backs.
Pollard has scored only two touchdowns this season despite owning 70% of the team’s red-zone rushing attempts: both of them came in Week 1 vs. the Giants. This is the perfect spot to get Pollard going again. The Giants have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Ekeler, but, I can’t bet the over on his rushing yards prop. In four games since returning from injury, he has not rushed for more than 47 yards in any single game. The Lions have been among the stingiest to opposing runners, allowing a mere 57 rushing yards per game this year. Ekeler is averaging only 3.6 yards per attempt this season, and Joshua Kelley should get just enough touches to keep Ekeler under this number.
This matchup with the Commanders is a great one, as they have allowed 189 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts and a ridiculous 9.9 yards per target. Metcalf is averaging seven targets per game this season and an average of 9.27 yards per target. Some quick math says this line is just about right, but with the Seahawks needing to come back strong after last week and Tyler Lockett possibly still nursing a hamstring injury, I’ll bank on Metcalf to have a nice day on Sunday.
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