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The 2023-24 men’s college basketball season tipped off Monday night with a major upset when No. 4 Michigan State lost to James Madison as a double-digit home favorite.
As Jon Rothstein likes to say, “Anarchy? Nope. Just college basketball.”
One thing you can count on is plenty more madness between now and March when the tournament gets underway, which is part of what makes betting on college hoops so difficult. That said, let’s take a snapshot of the top championship contenders and check in to see where conference title odds stand before league play gets underway.
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Duke +1100
Kansas +1100
Purdue +1100
Michigan State +1800
Creighton +2000
Marquette +2000
Tennessee +2000
Kentucky +2000
Connecticut +2200
Arizona +2500
Alabama +2500
The Blue Devils, Jayhawks and Boilermakers are co-favorites to win it all after early exits in the Big Dance a year ago. Kansas, which added Hunter Dickinson in the transfer portal, earned the No. 1 spot in Kevin Sweeney’s preseason rankings. Duke welcomed back Kyle Filipowski for his sophomore season and came in at No. 2, followed by No.3 Purdue, a program led by senior Zach Edey with a few recent embarrassing tournament exits on its resume.
Further down the list are the Huskies, who cut down the nets in April, but coach Dan Hurley is relying on a largely different lineup to defend UConn’s title. The Blue Jays and Golden Eagles both have better odds to win it all than the Huskies, their biggest competition in the Big East. Three SEC teams — the Volunteers, Wildcats and Crimson Tide — all find themselves among the favorites. Sweeney is especially bullish on Tennessee, the No. 4 team in his rankings.
Last year’s Final Four teams all had preseason odds of +6000 or longer: San Diego State was +6000, Miami was +9000, FAU was +250000 and UConn was +7500. For reference, No. 22 SDSU (+7500), No. 23 St. John’s (+6000) and No. 24 UVA (+6000) all made Sweeney’s preseason top 25 but have similarly long odds to make a title run.
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Duke +110
North Carolina +500
Virginia +650
Miami +650
Clemson +1200
Virginia Tech +1900
NC State +1900
Wake Forest +2600
Pittsburgh +5000
Syracuse +5000
Florida State +5500
Boston College +12000
Georgia Tech +12000
Louisville +25000
Notre Dame +25000
Apart from the Hurricanes’ Final Four appearance, 2022-23 was a down year in the ACC as the Tar Heels missed the tournament entirely and the Blue Devils lost in the second round. At 15–5, Miami and UVA split the regular-season title and both programs are expected to vie for it once again, but the blue bloods in North Carolina are the favorites with Duke at almost even odds to finish first in the conference in Jon Scheyer’s second season at the helm and UNC a distant second.
Sweeney picked the Blue Devils to win the ACC behind the play of Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor, two All-Conference picks. After Duke it goes Miami, North Carolina, Virginia and then Clemson, per Sweeney’s projections.
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Purdue +155
Michigan State +340
Maryland +850
Illinois +1000
Wisconsin +1000
Indiana +1500
Ohio State +2000
Iowa +2500
Northwestern +3000
Nebraska +3500
Michigan +4000
Penn State +5000
Minnesota +25000
The Boilermakers won the Big Ten going away last season for the first time since 2017 with a 15–5 record in conference play. The Spartans have the best odds at preventing Matt Painter’s team from repeating, followed by the Terrapins, Illini and Badgers.
Sweeney projects Purdue will win the conference again behind the play of Edey and he likes Michigan State, Illinois, Maryland and Wisconsin to fall in line behind the Boilermakers.
Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports
Kansas +175
Houston +400
Texas +700
TCU +750
Baylor +1000
Texas Tech +1200
Kansas State +1500
Iowa State +2000
BYU +3000
Cincinnati +4000
Oklahoma State +5000
West Virginia +7500
Oklahoma +7500
UCF +10000
The Big 12 got bigger this offseason with the additions of BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston. The BYU Cougars, Bearcats and Knights are unlikely to make a splash in one of college basketball’s top conferences, but the Houston Cougars project to challenge the Jayhawks after years of dominant play in the AAC. A 13–5 mark in league play for Kansas gave coach Bill Self another outright regular-season title a year ago.
Sweeney projects the Jayhawks to repeat atop the conference and Houston to finish runner-up, followed by Baylor, Texas and Texas Tech.
Marquette +260
Creighton +270
Connecticut +300
Villanova +550
St. John’s +1200
Xavier +2000
Providence +2000
Georgetown +7500
Butler +14000
DePaul +25000
The Golden Eagles, Blue Jays and Huskies are all neck and neck in the battle for the Big East but Marquette, the reigning regular-season champions who went 17–3 in league play last season, has a slight edge in the betting market. The Wildcats seem to be in a tier of their own, behind the top three teams but also well ahead of the likes of the Red Storm, Musketeers and Friars.
There could be some value in backing UConn to win its first Big East title since it rejoined the conference in 2020. Sweeney picked the Huskies to finish first, ahead of Marquette, Creighton, Villanova and St. John’s (in that order).
Arizona +175
USC +340
Colorado +600
UCLA +700
Oregon +950
Stanford +1100
Utah +1400
Washington +2200
Arizona State +5000
Washington State +5000
Oregon State +25000
The Wildcats have the best odds to go out as Pac-12 champions in the final season of the conference as we know it. Arizona, which won the regular-season title in Year 1 under Tommy Lloyd in 2021-22, is coming off a second-place finish behind the Bruins, who went 18–2 last year in league play.
Sweeney’s preseason rankings project the conference to be a bit top heavy with Arizona, USC and UCLA all ranked in the top 15 — No. 37 Colorado is next-best team. He picked the Wildcats to finish first, followed by the Trojans, Bruins, Buffaloes and Ducks.
Tennessee +290
Texas A&M +550
Kentucky +600
Florida +700
Auburn +800
Alabama +850
Arkansas +850
Mississippi State +1700
Missouri +1700
Ole Miss +2000
LSU +4000
Georgia +9000
Vanderbilt +10000
South Carolina +21000
The Volunteers are favored to finish first in a deep conference, but they’ll face tough competition from the Aggies and Wildcats, not to mention the Gators, Auburn Tigers, Razorbacks and Crimson Tide, who won two of the last three SEC regular-season championships. Tennessee won a share of the title in 2017-18 but hasn’t won it outright since the 2007-08 campaign.
Sweeney picked the Volunteers to end that drought behind their elite defense and the Wildcats, Aggies, Razorbacks and Gators to round out the top five. Sweeney has Alabama, the No. 1 overall seed in last year’s tournament, finishing sixth in the conference after an offseason of roster turnover.
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