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For the second consecutive week, bettors once again witnessed favorites dominate the slate with a 10-3 straight-up (SU) mark, while posting a lucrative 8-5 against the spread (ATS) record. Fantasy football managers as well as player proposition bettors were disappointed to see low-scoring games that finished a combined 10-3 (76.9%) to the under in Week 9.
Among the favorites to win and cover the number included the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs who beat the high-powered Dolphins 21-14 in Frankfurt, Germany. Kansas City, 1.5-point favorites, sit atop the AFC West thanks to a conference-best 7-2 record (tied with Ravens). Two-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes improved to a stellar 20-6-1 ATS (76.9%) in his career when a favorite of a field goal or less or an underdog.
Taylor Swift opted not to watch her beau Travis Kelce play in person for a second consecutive week. The standout tight end, who became the Kansas City's all-time leading receiver (10,941 receiving yards) in the victory, posted his worst game of the season making just three receptions for 14 yards. In games with Swift in attendance, the Chiefs are 4-0, outscoring opponents 114-55 - with Kelce thriving. In her absence the last two games, the eight-time Pro Bowl standout is averaging a paltry 36 receiving yards per game.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens won their fourth consecutive game, crushing Seattle 37-3 as 6-point home favorites. Baltimore, who owns the NFL’s best point differential (+115), have posted a very lucrative 6-3 ATS mark for bettors.
On the opposite end of the betting spectrum, Buffalo fell to 1-3 on the road after losing 24-18 on Sunday night at Cincinnati. The Bills, despite possessing a winning record (5-4 SU), own a disappointing 3-5 ATS mark.
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In the NFC, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles improved to a league-best 8-1, after beating the Cowboys 28-23 as 3-point home favorites. Philadelphia, who is now 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field, have posted a 5-2-2 ATS (71.4%) on the season.
In spite of losing Kirk Cousins to a season-ending Achilles injury, the Vikings earned their fourth consecutive SU and ATS win of the season via a thrilling 31-28 win over Atlanta. Minnesota now sports a solid 5-3-1 ATS on the year.
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While most focus on offensive players, one bettor named @j_wakeupndream on Instagram placed a $10 same-game parlay wager on 10 different defensive players surpassing their tackles + assists (T+A) projections in the Rams-Packers game.
The investment involved: Aaron Donald over 3.5 (T+A), Ahkello Witherspoon over 2.5 (T+A), Bryon Young over 3.5 (T+A), Christian Rozeboom over 6.5 (T+A), Jaire Alexander over (T+A), Jonathan Owens over 4.5 (T+A), Jordan Fuller over 5.5 (T+A), Keisean Nixon over 4.5 (T+A), Michael Hoecht over 3.5 (T+A) and Russ Yeast over 4.5 (T+A).
The $10 wager at odds of +300000 returned an amazing $30,010.
One lucky bettor turned a $5 ‘Two Touchdown’ tight end player proposition parlay bet into a very lucrative hit on Sunday.
The investment involved tight ends Cade Otton (+6000) and Cole Kmet (+3300) both finding the end zone at least twice in their respective games.
The rarity of players scoring at least two touchdowns becomes even more impressive after diving in deeper on these two players, Otton entered Week 9 with only three touchdown receptions in 23 career games, while Kmet found the end zone only 12 times in 58 games.
After two players who had a combined 15 touchdowns scored twice on Sunday, the $5 wager at odds of +207300, returned $10,370.
In Week 9, bettors witnessed home teams go 9-3 (SU) and 7-5 ATS. Home teams own a slight 71-60 SU (54.1%) edge, as well as a slight ATS advantage at 65-61-5 (ATS) (51.6%) on the season.
*Editor's Note: International games (4 are not included in home / road stats
Bettors watched favorites post both a 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS mark, leaving favorites with a 72-58-5 ATS (55%) edge on the year.
Games were lower scoring than oddsmakers expected posting a 10-3 mark to the under on the week. On the year, unders own a small lead with a mark of 82-52-1 (61.2%).
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Texans kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn suffered a quad injury in the first half, leaving the Texans without a placekicker.
After Fairbairn’s injury, Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans was forced to use backup running back Dare Ogunbowale on kickoffs.
Despite handling that task relatively well, the Texans opted to attempt two-point conversions on all four of their subsequent touchdowns - only converting once.
In the fourth quarter, Ogunbowale kicked a 29-yard field goal.
First non-kicker or punter to make a field goal in the regular season since 2004 ???? pic.twitter.com/tdIxG0gc4F
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 5, 2023
However, Ryans didn’t trust Ogunbowale on longer distance extra points, resulting in CJ Stroud kneeling-down on the final two-point attempt rather than risk any potential game-tying two-point return by Tampa Bay’s special teams.
The Texans won the game 39-37 - failing to cover the 3-point spread.
Fairbairn, who is 38-for-38 on extra points over the last two seasons, would likely have added three more points to Houston’s point total. His injury handed Texans bettors the worst bad beat of Week 9.
72% of money on KC / MIA Over 51.5
77% of money on Atlanta (4.5)
84% of money on Patriots (-3)
69% of money on Saints (-9)
88% of money on CIN / BUF Over 52
In Week 9, Survivor pool contestants around the country strongly selected Cleveland (-13.5) over Arizona, New Orleans (-9.5) over Chicago and Atlanta (-4.5) over Minnesota.
The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.
In Week 9 of the NFL season, the Browns, Saints and Falcons made up over 95% of the selections in Survivor contests.
While both Cleveland and New Orleans defended their home turf, many Survivor players were burned by the Vikings upsetting the Falcons. Entrants were fading rookie quarterback Jaren Hall. However, after Hall was forced from the game (concussion), newly-acquired Josh Dobbs sparked a thrilling 31-28 win.
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Here are three games that will likely be heavily chosen by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 10.
Buffalo (-7.5) vs Denver (MNF)
Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.
