In 2000, America witnessed one of the strangest election outcomes in its history — the "hanging chads" election in which the winner was to be determined by counting little bits of cardboard suspended from improperly punched ballots in Florida. After 35 suspenseful days, the U.S. Supreme Court gave the election to George W. Bush, even though Al Gore won the popular vote.
Then came 2020, when Donald Trump refused to accept his loss and summoned a makeshift political paramilitary force to Washington, D.C., to keep Congress from its constitutional duty to certify Joe Biden as the winner. Thousands of insurrectionists stormed the Capitol and rioted. To this day, Trump claims Biden's victory was fraudulent.
Now comes 2024 — an election whose outcome could be an even bigger mess.
Disinformation: Nearly three in 10 Americans — and 68 percent of Republicans — say they still believe Trump won in 2020, even though all evidence proves otherwise. Experts describe the 2020 election as the most "secure, transparent, and verified election in U.S. history."
The felony factor: Trump faces 91 charges of fraud in four criminal cases that include fundamental crimes against democracy. Voters may not know by Election Day whether Trump is a convicted felon whose principal motivation could be to win the presidency so he can pardon himself.
The 14th Amendment: There may be a protracted legal battle about whether Trump can even appear on ballots next year, let alone serve as president. Section 3 of the Constitution's 14th Amendment says no one who has sworn an oath to support the Constitution and who is involved in insurrection or "giving aid or comfort" to insurrectionists can serve in any federal or state government office. Politico's polling shows 51 percent of voters support the effort to disqualify Trump under Section 3.
Several state and federal courts are considering lawsuits about this, and it's likely to end up before the U.S. Supreme Court. A threshold issue is whether Section 3 is "self-executing," meaning it applies even when an aspiring officeholder has not been convicted of participating in an insurrection.
Another critical issue is what the amendment means by "insurrection." Trump's defense team argues the former president did not take part in the attack on the Capitol. But one of America's best-known conservative jurists, former federal judge J. Michael Luttig, points out that Section 3 refers to insurrection against the Constitution, not the United States. In Trump's case, it was his multi-pronged efforts to violate the Constitution by trying to remain in office after losing a legitimate election, Luttig says.
The big purge? The 14th Amendment's impact on Trump has taken the spotlight, but it triggers an even larger question. Section 3 might bar other public officials from office when they have "given aid or comfort" to insurrections after swearing allegiance to the Constitution (though there is an avenue for lawmakers to vote for an exemption). Members of Congress, the U.S. Supreme Court, and many state officers and legislators take oaths to uphold the Constitution. More than half the Republicans in Congress, 147 members, voted against certifying Biden's election. One of them is Republican Rep. Mike Johnson, the new Speaker of the House.
Loss of the two-party system: We no longer have our traditional two-party system in the United States, thanks to Trump turning the GOP into "a personality cult built around grievance," as The Bulwark's Jonathan Last describes it. In August, an NBC News poll found that 60 percent of Americans and a third of Republicans thought Trump shouldn't run again. And 70 percent of Americans don't want Biden to run again, including 51 percent of Democrats.
Over 60 percent of Americans think a third party is necessary — and there is no shortage of minor political parties. The United States had 54 after the 2020 election. No third-party candidate has ever won the presidency, and few have won any electoral votes. But the quick rise of organizations like No Labels has prominent party leaders justifiably worried they can become a "spoiler" in 2024.
Mistrust in the system: Voters don't trust the Electoral College. In recent history, it has given the presidency twice to candidates who lost the popular vote. That's how Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Now, 65 percent of Americans want the popular vote to decide the presidency.
The only near-term solution is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, an agreement in which each state would award all its electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote. So far, states with 205 electoral votes have joined the compact, about 76 percent of the 270 needed to win the presidency. The compact's organizers say it's too late to secure the remaining commitments necessary for the 2024 election.
Voter suppression: With the electoral process under tight scrutiny, it's unlikely anyone would try to reprise Trump's effort to create fake electors or manipulate votes. But candidates won't have to. Since the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act 10 years ago, at least 29 states have passed 94 voter suppression laws. Most are attempts by Republicans to suppress the votes of traditionally Democratic constituencies. Democrats have sought changes, too, but usually to make voting easier.
The New York Times reported that "a network of billionaire-backed advocacy groups" is still trying to suppress voting, although not as visibly as states did in 2021 in response to Trump's claims of a stolen election. The effort has shifted into incremental rather than radical changes, the paper says.
Loss of faith in democracy: Public opinion research shows faith in democracy and government is all over the map, with over 60 percent of Americans reporting they have little confidence in the future of the political system. A full 77 percent think the country is moving in the wrong direction; 52 percent agree that "America's best days are now behind us"; 90 percent think democracy isn't working well; and only 16 percent say they trust government to do what is right. In other words, conditions are ripe for the death of democracy in America.
All these data show Americans are crying out for positive, principled and constructive leadership. Polls reveal where we need healing. There are bipartisan solutions if we can persuade the country and its leaders to collaborate on implementing them. That's what candidates and parties should be discussing.
The bottom line: The 2024 election at all levels of government is about saving democracy. We should not vote for any candidate who is not committed to that outcome or has no ideas about how to achieve it.
William S. Becker is co-editor of and a contributor to “Democracy Unchained: How to Rebuild Government for the People,” and contributor to the just-published book, "Democracy in a Hotter Time." He has served in several state and federal government roles, including executive assistant to the attorney general of Wisconsin. He is currently executive director of the Presidential Climate Action Project (PCAP), a nonpartisan climate policy think tank unaffiliated with the White House.
