As we approach Week 9 of the NFL season, one thing remains constant when it comes to betting on the Dallas Cowboys – it’s not often a wise proposition. The Cowboys have a knack for disappointing bettors when expectations are high. This week, they face off against the Philadelphia Eagles, with the Eagles currently sitting as three-point favorites. The question on everyone’s mind is, can the Cowboys pull off an upset, or will the Eagles continue their winning streak?
The Eagles are riding high after a convincing win last week, which has likely influenced the oddsmakers in their favor. However, when you consider the way the Cowboys typically play, you might have expected a more significant spread favoring the Eagles. But it’s the Cowboys, and fans and bettors alike tend to believe in their potential, even when the results don’t always align.
Predicting the outcome of this divisional matchup isn’t straightforward. One major variable in the equation is the health of Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. He’s dealing with an injury that could impact his performance, although it’s uncertain how much. While it may not be a game-changing factor, there’s a chance he could reinjure himself, and he’s not operating at 100% currently.
Another factor making it difficult to pick a clear winner against the spread (ATS) is the uncertainty surrounding the Cowboys’ offensive strategy. They made significant changes during their bye week two weeks ago, notably increasing their pass rate on early downs, particularly on first down. This adjustment aligns with the Eagles’ defensive strengths and weaknesses.
Philadelphia boasts the best run defense in the NFL on first downs, allowing a mere 1.7 yards per carry. They stifle opposing running backs with a -0.54 expected points added (EPA) per rush and a paltry 16% success rate on running attempts. In other words, trying to establish a running game against them is a daunting task.
However, the Eagles’ pass defense on first downs tells a different story. When teams throw the ball on first down, they surrender a +0.10 EPA per attempt, allow 7.2 yards per attempt, and have a 51% success rate with a 76% completion rate. Essentially, they transform from a formidable run defense to a vulnerable pass defense.
A prime example of exploiting this weakness was seen in the Washington Commanders’ recent game against the Eagles. In that matchup, Washington threw the ball on 94% of their first downs in the first half and 81% for the entire game. This strategic shift proved highly effective, with quarterback Sam Howell amassing over 200 passing yards on first down alone.
If the Cowboys took notes from this game, they should prioritize passing early and often against the Eagles. Doing so could allow them to put up points and force Jalen Hurts to pass the ball to catch up in the second half, as he did successfully against Washington. Moreover, the Cowboys’ pass rush will have more opportunities to disrupt Hurts if they can create a trailing scenario for him.
This Week 9 matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles promises to be a compelling contest. Betting on the Cowboys might be a risky endeavor historically, but their ability to adapt to the Eagles’ defensive weaknesses could make this game more competitive than the odds suggest. Keep an eye on Jalen Hurts’ health and the Cowboys’ offensive strategy as key factors that could sway the outcome in this divisional showdown.
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