Yardeni Research
Our chart of the day is from market veteran Ed Yardeni, which plots the S&P 500 since 2018 and highlights a key rising trend line that could be acting as support for the stock market.
Yardeni pointed to this chart in a Wednesday note to clients and argued that the stock market may have just bottomed.
"The S&P 500 might have found support at its uptrend line connecting the lows of March 23, 2020 and October 12, 2022," Yardeni said.
Indeed, from a technical perspective, the S&P 500 have made a lot of progress over the past week after it briefly closed below the 4,200 support level. The index has reclaimed the important 4,200 level, and on Thursday is opened above its rising 200-day moving average, another closely watched technical level.
Much of the rally has been driven by better than expected third-quarter earnings results, as well as the Federal Reserve's less hawkish stance towards interest rates. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its FOMC meeting on Wednesday and gave no clear indication that it would hike interest rates next month.
If the stock market did bottom this week, as Yardeni suggests, it would play into the bullish seasonals that typically drive the stock market higher into the end of the year.
Since 1950, November has been the strongest month of the year for stock gains, as well as the start of both the strongest two-month and six-month period for stocks, according to data from LPL Research.
"Santa may be early this year," Yardeni said.
