Thursday Night football kicks off at Acrisure Stadium this week as the Steelers host the Titans. The Steelers are expected to start a banged-up Kenny Pickett and are favored by 2.5 points at home. The Titans will start rookie Will Levis, who had an impressive debut on Sunday vs. the Falcons. The game total is set at only 36.5 at SI Sportsbook, and that means we are going to target a few running backs and their matchups in this game.
Here are my favorite early player prop values at SI Sportsbook.
© Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK
The King is still the King in Tennessee despite sharing a few more snaps with rookie Tyjae Spears. Henry is averaging the same 4.4 yards per attempt he has averaged the past two seasons, and the Steelers are allowing an average of 117 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season. That’s the third-most allowed on a per game basis. Henry ran for 101 Sunday with Will Levis starting at QB, and we will bet he can get to 77 on Thursday. He’s exceeded this prop in four of seven games played.
As good as the matchup is for Henry on paper, it’s the complete opposite for Harris, who is averaging a mere 3.7 yards per attempt this season, while his teammate, Jaylen Warren, is averaging just 3.9. Pittsburgh can’t really seem to get its run game going, and I don’t see that changing vs. a stout Titans run defense that has allowed just 586 rushing yards this season, with most of those going to Colts running backs in Week 5 (183 yards). However, I can see Harris easily exceeding this low receiving prop. Harris will be on the field, and with a banged-up Pickett, we should expect a few more check-downs. Harris has exceeded this prop in three of the last four contests after a slow start to the season.
Hopkins had a massive day on Sunday with Levis under center, tallying 128 yards and three touchdowns. So, am I buying in? Yes. But not just because Levis will be at QB. It seems like maybe, just maybe, Tennessee has figured out how to use its best receiver. Hopkins now has 100-plus receiving yards games in two of his last three, and this week’s matchup with the Steelers -- who have allowed an average of 195 receiving yards per game to wideouts this season -- should easily have Nuk hitting the over. As for the TD prop, the Steelers have also allowed one TD per game on average to opposing receivers, and it looks like Levis only has eyes for Hopkins.
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