Yesterday, October 6, 2023, was the 50th anniversary of the launch of the Yom Kippur War, also known as the October War. It was an all-out assault on Israel, a massive invasion led by Egypt and Syria with the backing of over a dozen other belligerents, leaving many thousands dead. The invasion came during Jews’ high holy day of Yom Kippur, and thus was a complete surprise. Tactically, the huge Arab coalition achieved the element of surprise, and Israeli losses were significant.
Still, one never knows how these ugly situations can escalate, spin out of control, and involve other nations.
Every fall semester, I teach a course on Middle East Politics at Grove City College, and I always alert students to the possibility of something very bad happening in the Middle East in the semester ahead, knowing as I do that several key anniversaries come up every fall in the Middle East, and Islamist militants have a thing about anniversaries. They know their history extremely well, far better than ignorant Americans miseducated in our government schools and woke universities. When September 11, 2001 occurred, many of us racked our brains for key historical moments that might have involved September 11 in the distant past: Lepanto? Malta? The fall of Constantinople? The Battle of Vienna? (READ MORE: The Day Hamas Attacks, Pols and Profs Condemn Israel’s Existence)
All of which brings me to October 6, 2023. Events of late in the Middle East have seemed oddly tranquil. I even wrote a piece recently about the advent of the Abraham Accords and the wonderful development of so many Arab nations suddenly recognizing Israel’s right to exist. But never rest too assured with this region of the globe. Something is always swirling if not simmering with what we’ve long called the Arab-Israeli conflict. Worse, something is always boiling between the nation of Israel and the entity that has struggled to become a Palestinian state in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, where Hamas resides.
Well, the simmering-boiling exploded overnight, as we in America awakened this morning to news of a shocking attack by Hamas on Israel (indeed, perhaps timed with the anniversary October 6, 1973). As I write, the world is trying to figure out just how bad the assault is. An Israeli defense official this morning told CNN that there are “a substantial number” of dead Israelis. There are reports of Hamas militants shooting people in the streets, firing bombs and rockets, of paragliders descending into Israel territory, and even of Jews taken hostage. The latter is especially alarming, as it would signal long battles ahead to secure the release of those hostages.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s strong leader, has stated candidly: “Citizens of Israel, we are at war.”
That appears to be so. And Netanyahu is no leader to screw around with. Expect his response to be swift, fierce, and uncompromising.
The key question now is where this goes and how bad it gets. Also of concern will be the response of the international community, the United States, and other major nations.
As students of the October 1973 war know, that conflict was especially dangerous not only because of the tragic deaths of so many Israelis and Arabs, but because it provoked the intervention of the two superpowers, the United States and USSR. It ultimately led the United States under President Richard Nixon to increase the nation’s nuclear alert to the level of DEFCON 3. Our Ben Stein has often written about how Nixon literally saved Israel in 1973 with the huge infusion of U.S. weaponry that his Pentagon immediately supplied. (READ MORE: My Greatest President of Them All)
To be sure, and let me be very clear, I highly doubt that today’s Israel needs anything like that from the United States in dealing with Hamas right now. This attack by Hamas in no way appears to resemble the massive assault by the huge Arab coalition in October 1973. This looks to be totally different. Still, one never knows how these ugly situations can escalate, spin out of control, and involve other nations. Hopefully that will not happen.
Where will it go? We shall see. But for now, say your prayers for peace in the Middle East.
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