The Dallas Cowboys might be the talk of the town with their elite defense, but the San Francisco 49ers boast the league's No. 2 most efficient passing attack.
The Dallas Cowboys might be the talk of the town with their elite defense, but a closer look reveals they haven’t been tested. Up to this point, they’ve faced quarterbacks Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, and Joshua Dobbs. Although one might be tempted to put Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers in the same category, that would be a misjudgment. The 49ers currently boast the league’s No. 2 most efficient passing attack.
The goal for the 49ers in this upcoming game? Keeping Purdy untouched and unpressured. Why? The stats provide a crystal-clear answer. When Purdy is under pressure, his average drops to a dismal minus 0.32 EP per attempt, with a 36% success rate and a meager 5.6 yards per attempt. Conversely, when he’s protected, those numbers skyrocket. He achieves an impressive plus 0.77 EP per attempt, boasts a 71% success rate and manages an astounding 10.8 yards per attempt. Let’s underscore that: Purdy is No. 1 across the NFL when his O-line shields him effectively.
This isn’t just a season statistic anomaly. Flashback to last year’s playoffs when the 49ers clashed with the Cowboys: When Purdy was given a clean pocket, he averaged 9.4 yards per attempt. Contrast that with when he was under duress, where he saw a dramatic drop to 4.6 yards per attempt. It’s a recurring theme: the protection of Purdy is tantamount to the 49ers’ success.
To ensure Purdy remains untouched, the 49ers need two key components: to avoid predictable passing situations and to establish an early lead. That means the ground game, orchestrated by coach Kyle Shanahan, must deliver. However, here’s where the plot thickens. The Cowboys’ run defense stats might appear weak, especially against runs from three wide receiver sets, where they languish at No. 31 across various metrics. But against formations the 49ers favor, like the 21 or 12 personnel featuring two tight ends or two running backs, the Cowboys morph into a top-five run defense powerhouse.
For the 49ers to tip the scales in their favor, they might need to deviate from their traditional game plan. Spreading the field and using lighter formations with more wide receivers might be the antidote to the Cowboys’ staunch run defense.
While stats, strategies, and personnel play crucial roles, this game’s outcome may hinge on one factor: Can the 49ers keep Purdy clean?
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