The Celtics went into the offseason with the goal of overhauling the roster to build a championship-level team, and the transactions have been met with high expectations from the market.
Boston is the co-favorite to win the NBA championship with the Bucks after it acquired Jrue Holiday from the Portland Trail Blazers, who acquired the veteran guard after trading Damian Lillard to Milwaukee.
The new collective bargaining agreement would limit the Celtics from signing new players, so Boston had to be firm about its roster decisions. President of basketball operations Brad Stevens made it clear Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the foundation of the team, and everyone else is expendable.
The state of the Celtics roster earned a strong projection from ESPN NBA insider Kevin Pelton, who released his annual preseason projections for every team. For a second year in a row, Boston projects to be the best team in the regular season at 54.3 average wins.
“Both before and after the addition of Holiday, the Celtics have the NBA’s best projection by a wide margin for a second consecutive season,” Pelton wrote Friday. “It did not translate into the league’s best record last year, though Boston was No. 1 in terms of point differential — which is typically more predictive of future results.”
Pelton’s projection aligns with their win total heading into their season opener against the New York Knicks on Oct. 25. FanDuel set the line at 54.5 with the over at -115 and the under at -105. Boston won 57 games last season, and it should hit the over if its main pieces stay healthy. There is the added element of the in-season tournament, but again, that shouldn’t have a huge effect on the Celtics if they come out of it at full strength.
Boston is the favorite at DraftKings to be the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference at +130.
There really aren’t that many edges if you want to buy into the Celtics being the best team in the league. You could be ambitious and bet them to win over 60 games at +200 on FanDuel. Or you could bet them to match or go over last season’s win total at DraftKings — over 55.5 at +115 or over 57.5 at +150. However, the problem is last season was a considerable leap since they hadn’t won over 55 games since the 2017-18 season before then.
You’re best bet might to back Jayson Tatum to win MVP at +700 on FanDuel or +800 on DraftKings — always important to shop around for the best number. If the Celtics do reach their projection as the best team in the NBA, it means Tatum has hit another level and ascended to definitively be one of the game’s best players, which would put him in line for his first MVP.
There’s certainly an option to wait until the season starts and hope Boston starts slow so you can buy the dip for a second-half breakout. But market expectations showcase it’s title-or-bust for the Celtics this season.
