The NFL win total market will be volatile throughout the season. Heading into Week 5, here are the most notable increases and decreases. Notable IncreasesPhiladelphia Eagles 11.5 to 12.5Buffalo Bills 10.5 to 11.5Baltimore Ravens 9.5 to 10.5Detroit Lions 9.5 to 10.5Seattle Seahawks 8.5 to 9.5Los Angeles Chargers 8.5 to 9.5 Notable DecreasesCleveland Browns 10.5 to […]
The NFL win total market will be volatile throughout the season.
Heading into Week 5, here are the most notable increases and decreases.
Notable Increases
Philadelphia Eagles 11.5 to 12.5
Buffalo Bills 10.5 to 11.5
Baltimore Ravens 9.5 to 10.5
Detroit Lions 9.5 to 10.5
Seattle Seahawks 8.5 to 9.5
Los Angeles Chargers 8.5 to 9.5
Notable Decreases
Cleveland Browns 10.5 to 9.5
Cincinnati Bengals 9.5 to 8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5 to 8.5
Green Bay Packers 9.5 to 8.5
New York Jets 6.5 to 5.5
Carolina Panthers 5.5 to 4.5
I would be cautious in chasing the adjusted increased totals. Teams like the Eagles and Bills have the talent to get to 13 and 12 wins, respectively, but they had the talent before Week 1. The time to bet the over on either of them would have been at the beginning of the season. Now, the Eagles have an uphill battle when it comes to schedule with a stretch including the Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Bills and San Francisco 49ers. At some point, a few losses will push this total back down. As good as Philadelphia is, they have one of the most difficult schedules remaining. I’d wait to buy the dip when it comes.
The Lions, on the other hand, have the easiest schedule going forward. The Ravens, Chargers, and Cowboys are their toughest remaining opponents. With a consistent offense and an improved defense that already has taken down their toughest matchup in the Chiefs, the Lions and head coach Dan Campbell should be able to get to 11 wins in a watered-down NFC.
Another way to take advantage of the adjusted totals is to go over on the lines that have come down. For example, the Jets’ win total went from 6.5 to 5.5 wins. The reason for that is they had three consecutive losses to the Cowboys, New England Patriots and Chiefs. However, they got a big win against the AFC East favorite Bills in Week 1, kept it close with New England and kept Kansas City within a field goal.
I understand Zach Wilson is no Aaron Rodgers, but he also became the only quarterback in college or NFL history to outplay Patrick Mahomes with more completions, passing yards, touchdown passes and fewer interceptions in Week 4. With a top-five defense and plenty of weapons, Robert Saleh’s crew has proven they can beat the best in the league. I find it hard to believe they can’t squeak out five more wins with games ahead including the Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, Washington Commanders, Cleveland Browns and Patriots.
I’d fade the noise on the Jets and bet them to win more games than expected.
