Winter is fast approaching, and just like many others, you’ll probably want to know what the current impact Covid has on the UK is, what’s being done to improve it, and how you can remain safe in the following months.
Data from UK Health Security Agency (UKSA) showed levels of Covid had risen in England over the past few months, and they urged “vulnerable groups to take up the flu vaccine as data (surveillance graphs for week 37) shows last year’s programme prevented around 25,000 hospitalisations in England.”
However, even with taking all of the necessary precautions, it’s still unclear what could happen in the upcoming weeks and months.
It’s thought increased indoor mixing closer to the winter months could increase the risk of respiratory infections spreading, and questions still remain about the potential impact of the new Covid strain BA.2.86 (Pirola). If you didn’t know already, the current recorded symptoms of Pirola include:
New Scientist also recently reported three new symptoms as well: diarrhoea, eye irritation, and rashes.
Professor Steven Riley, director general of data, analytics, and surveillance told The Guardian: “It seems like patterns of waning [immunity] and the evolution of [the] virus itself are still the main drivers for the sort of variation that we’re seeing.
“[Covid] doesn’t seem to have dropped into any kind of resonance with seasonal factors.”
Covid outbreaks are constantly monitored, and deaths are tracked regularly by GOV.UK, and measures are in place that include testing of certain individuals in hospitals and other healthcare settings, swabbing of patients in particular GP surgeries, and reports of GP consultations where patients have turned up with respiratory symptoms, reports The Guardian.
In case you were wondering, there’s been a rise of 16,030 reported Covid cases (up 29.4% from the previous week) in the last seven days, as well as 225 reported deaths (up 55.2% from the previous week) in England alone.
It’s also been thought that the UK was almost “flying blind” as warned by experts this autumn.
Christina Pagel, a professor of operational research at University College London, explained a new wave could hit the UK in the following months.
“We might see the wave continue to grow, and grow faster, in September,” she mentioned. “What worries me most is if we get a repeat of the last winter NHS crisis this winter again, with Covid, flu and RSV all hitting around the same time,” said Pagel.
“We are definitely flying near blind” she told The Guardian.
Professor Riley also voiced concerns that data being collected now is not as “comprehensive as before”, admitting: “It’s obviously not as good as it was during the height of the pandemic, but times have changed and we have to be somewhat proportionate to the changing risk.”
“But that doesn’t mean surveillance is static. UKHSA has begun boosting efforts in the run-up to winter – largely,” said Riley. “Because it is when the NHS is under the most pressure.”
In case you needed a reminder, people at greatest risk of serious illness are able to receive a booster vaccine for free on the NHS, including care home residents, over-65s, frontline health and social care workers and those in a clinical risk group. It’s currently not available to anyone else.
So far, it’s been reported 2.5 million people in England have received the autumn COVID booster so far (figures for Scotland and Wales are unavailable as of now).
Last month UKHSA announced a new phase of the Siren [Sars-CoV-2 immunity and reinfection evaluation] study. This “large-scale partnership” with NHS healthcare workers will provide “an agile response to an evolving pandemic.”
“It is one of the national core studies established in response to COVID-19 and a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) urgent priority study, providing vital research into immunity and vaccine effectiveness,” GOV.UK mentioned.
The UKHSA and Office for National Statistics have also announced a community-based winter Covid-19 infection study (WCIS), which will “involve up to 32,000 lateral flow tests being carried out each week, providing key insight into the levels of COVID-19 circulating across the wider community.”
The WCIS study “will offer a way to levels in the community – a picture that has been pretty opaque since the previous iteration of the study was paused in March. The new work will also offer a way to track certain changes in the virus.”
“You can imagine not seeing an uptick in the community but seeing a significant increase in hospitalisations because [a variant] has become more severe,” said Riley.
That said, it’s thought that there will be certain limitations. WCIS will be based on rapid lateral flow tests rather than the PCR tests. That means it won’t directly provide information on particular Covid variants, and won’t be able to provide data on levels of other respiratory infections.
No updates have been given regarding the impact the Covid rises will have on the Christmas season – but in the meantime, remember to wash your hands regularly and take a test if you suspect you might have coronavirus.
