We’re going to manipulate some point spreads and totals entering Week 5 in an attempt to give some leeway in best-bet parlay.
Because while buying and selling points causes bettors to give up a little bit of the juice, we’ve had too many sides and totals dealt close losses and torpedo our payday.
Here are four picks in our Week 5 best-bet parlay. Betting lines and prices courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, which are also shared on NESNBets.com live odds page.
Cincinnati Bengals Under 23.5 points at Arizona Cardinals (+108)
It’s impossible to ignore just how inefficient Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been to start the campaign. Burrow clearly continues to be bothered by the calf injury he suffered during the preseason. And rather than sitting the franchise signal-caller to rest and recover, he’s instead led the Bengals to a 1-3 start. Cincinnati ranks dead last in yards per game and second-worst in points per game. Burrow’s Bengals are 1-3 on the total due in large part to their struggling offense, as well.
(-5.5) Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants (-295)
The Dolphins opened as a 10.5-point favorite and have been bet up to 12-point home favorite. We’re going to sell a few points to get Miami below a key number, meaning they only need to win by six or more in order for us to cash. It’s hard to ignore just how bad the Giants have been this season. Brian Daboll’s team might be the worst in the league. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are returning to South Beach after an embarrassing loss to the Buffalo Bills. This is as good of a bounce-back spot as you can get.
(+3.5) New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-156)
Here’s another point spread we’re going to manipulate by buying an extra points to get us through a key number in three. The Broncos currently are a 2.5-point home favorite. And while it’s the Jets who have to fly cross country and play in the Denver air, Sean Payton’s team has not done anything to deserve our respect. Will Zach Wilson keep the momentum building after Week 4? Perhaps. Especially since he’s going up against a Broncos defense that ranks dead last in both points and yards allowed. Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett likely will want to get some revenge on Payton, as well.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Under 42.5 (-215)
The AFC North clash opened with a total of 40.5 and has been bet down to 38. We’re going to buy a few extra points to make it an enticing 42.5 — 24-17 cashes in this case, for example. The Ravens and Steelers recently have played in low-scoring affairs. In the past five head-to-head matchups, the winning team has eclipsed 20 points just once. Their last five totals ended up 29, 30, 29, 39 and 33. And injuries to both lineups — Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett is questionable — causes it to feel like it’ll be another rock fight. Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh are 1-3 against the total this season.
Payout: 1 unit to win 5.69
To date: 10-5 (Down 5 units)
