The Cowboys have been the best team in the league on third down, while San Francisco has struggled. Plus, Bills quarterback Josh Allen could have a huge game against Jacksonville’s defense, while Patrick Mahomes faces a blitz-heavy Vikings unit.
The calendar has turned to October and, with it, the race to figure out the contenders and pretenders.
There are 14 games on the docket in Week 5, including a Sunday night game between two of the top teams in the NFL, the 49ers and Cowboys. There’s also another international affair, this time with the Jaguars and Bills squaring off in London.
Here are the matchups that could determine the outcome of each game.
Note: The Browns, Chargers, Seahawks and Buccaneers are on their bye week.
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Key matchup: Jaguars’ pass defense vs. Bills after catch.
Jacksonville has been uneven this year and now takes on an offense averaging 41 points per game over its three-game win streak.
For the Jaguars, the big test is containing Buffalo’s passing game. Jacksonville ranks 31st in yards after catch allowed (548), while the Bills are fifth in the metric offensively (525).
Key matchup: Falcons’ playmakers vs. Texans’ tackling.
Houston has been a wonderful surprise thus far, with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud looking like a star. However, one issue has been tackling, with the Texans missing an NFL-worst 45 so far.
If Houston doesn’t clean up its tackling Sunday, it could be a problem against Falcons running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, tight end Kyle Pitts and receiver Drake London.
Key matchup: Panthers’ run game vs. Lions’ front seven.
Nobody has been better against the run than Detroit through four weeks. The Lions are second in yards per carry against (3.0) and second in total rushing yards permitted (243).
If Carolina is to win its first game, the Panthers must get their middling ground attack going (95.3 yards per game), considering how much rookie quarterback Bryce Young has struggled. Only the Bengals and Giants have thrown for fewer yards per completion (8.6).
Key matchup: Every receiver in this game vs. drops.
We’re going to be a bit unconventional here. While we could talk about the Titans’ excellent run defense or the Colts’ forcing only two missed tackles in the run game all year, we’re going another route.
Tennessee and Indianapolis rank second- and third-worst, respectively, in drop rate, behind only the Chiefs. The team that catches the ball best Sunday wins.
Key matchup: Giants’ secondary vs. Tua Tagovailoa.
This could get ugly. New York’s defense ranks second in blitz percentage at 49.6% and allows 11.5 yards per completion, eighth-worst in the league.
Conversely, the Dolphins gain a league-best 13.9 yards per completion and Tagovailoa gets the ball out quickly, ranking third in pocket time per drop-back.
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Key matchup: Mac Jones vs. Saints’ pass defense.
New Orleans has been stingy defensively, despite ranking 22nd in pressure rate (21.6%). The Saints have made up for it by leading the NFL with 27 passes defensed.
For Jones, he should have time but must find some open receivers. He checks in seventh for intended air yards (1,161), while New Orleans is 18th in completed air yards against (512). If the Saints can’t get home, Jones has to be aggressive and accurate downfield.
Key matchup: Lamar Jackson vs. Steelers’ secondary.
Jackson has been terrific this year, even with a litany of injuries hampering the offense. Baltimore is completing 74.3% of its pass attempts, second only to the Bills.
However, the Steelers present a unique challenge. Pittsburgh is fifth best, allowing only 59.7% of throws to find their target.
Key matchup: Rams’ red-zone offense vs. Eagles’ red-zone defense.
If there’s a weakness for Philadelphia, it’s defending the red zone. The Eagles rank 28th, giving up touchdowns on 73.3% of trips inside their 20-yard line.
Should the Rams pull off an upset, it’ll almost certainly be because they converted in the red zone. Los Angeles has been good, ranking 10th offensively at a 61.5% rate.
Key matchup: James Conner vs. the Bengals’ run defense.
Conner has gotten off to a terrific start in Arizona, rushing for 318 yards, third in the NFL. All told, the Cardinals rank second in yards per carry (5.3).
Meanwhile, the Bengals have been a mess containing the run. Cincinnati is 30th in yards per carry against (5.1) and 31st in total rushing yards allowed (628).
Key matchup: Zach Wilson vs. the Broncos’ secondary.
Wilson may have come of age against the Chiefs on Sunday night, going 28-of-39 for 245 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Broncos have allowed a league-worst 78.1% completion rate.
Wilson will have open receivers in Denver, and he needs to be accurate when finding them.
Key matchup: Patrick Mahomes vs. the Vikings’ blitz.
Minnesota is blitzing at an incredible 57% clip, easily the highest in the league. Mahomes is a wizard at avoiding sacks, helping the Chiefs hold a league-best 1.3% sack rate.
If the Vikings are going to win, they’ll need to get Mahomes on the ground.
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Key matchup: Cowboys’ third-down offense vs. 49ers’ defense.
Dallas and quarterback Dak Prescott have been excellent against teams on third down, converting at a league-best 51.6% rate.
While the Niners are dominant in almost all facets, leading to their unbeaten record, they’ve struggled defensively on third down. San Francisco is a mediocre 20th, stopping teams only 41.1% of the time.
Key matchup: Josh Jacobs vs. Packers’ run defense.
After winning the rushing crown last year with 1,653 yards, Jacobs has been limited to 166 yards through four games on 2.9 yards per carry.
However, the Packers have been a sieve against the rush, ranking 30th. In four games, Green Bay has twice allowed 200-plus rushing yards, including last Thursday against the Lions.
