New rule: No more fading Baker Mayfield.
What had once been a profitable betting strategy has been tossed to the curb as the former No. 1 overall pick has made a stunning resurgence through four games in Tampa Bay. The revitalized Buccaneer is playing like a top 10 quarterback — and trashing my passing yard under bets in the process.
He was one of many data points to glow last week. The good news is we broke the stasis of our .500, extremely boring record. The bad news is we did it with a 3-5 record — one made even more impressive by the fact I was 2-0 after the Jacksonville Jaguars handled the Atlanta Falcons in London.
I’m wading into “fade” territory myself, and the water’s about waist deep. Another bummer week like that and I’ll be happy to tell you to bet against me. But for now, let’s see if I can pull up from this dive.
As always, official plays are in bold.
Trevor Lawrence UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns. He’s got two in his last three games total, and now he’s facing a defense that’s given up three passing touchdowns all season. Pair this up with UNDER 244.5 passing yards.
CJ Stroud OVER 247.5 passing yards. Stroud keeps outperforming expectations, let’s ride this train until it derails.
Joe Burrow UNDER 251.5 passing yards. Burrow can’t buy time in the pocket or step into his throws downfield. He completed one pass last week that traveled at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.
Alvin Kamara UNDER 55.5 rushing yards. Kamara only hit 39 yards in his 2022 debut. Now he’s got to prove he’s still a feature back against the Patriots and their eighth-ranked rushing defense. Expect him to play a larger role in the passing game instead and pair this with OVER 22.5 receiving yards.
Joshua Dobbs OVER 21.5 rushing yards. He’s sprung for at least 40 yards each of his last three games. The Bengals allowed Deshaun Watson, the quarterback who’d been accused of more than 20 counts of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself described as “predatory behavior” as a Texan, to run for 45 yards and Lamar Jackson to spring for 54.
Chris Olave OVER 62.5 receiving yards. Expect Derek Carr to lean on his young WR1 against a Patriots’ defense missing its top cornerback and top pass rusher. Pair this with Rashid Shaheed OVER 27.5 receiving yards — he might hit this in one shot.
Kendrick Bourne OVER 32.5 receiving yards. He’s hit this total in three of four games and is averaging 44 yards per contest.
Last week: 3-5 (.375)
Season to date: 15-17 (.469)
