MIAMI GARDENS — Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 5-0 against the New England Patriots.
He has won his two starts against the New York Jets.
But against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, it’s a different story.
Tagovailoa is 1-4 in his career against the Bills, who have won the AFC East every year he has been in the NFL, in the same division. Three of his five-worst starts by quarterback rating have come against Buffalo.
But a turnaround started in 2022. Tagovailoa and the Dolphins were competitive in two regular-season games he started against Buffalo, splitting the pair. Plus, with Tagovailoa out last postseason, Miami hung tough in a 34-31 loss behind third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson.
When the Dolphins (3-0) face the Bills (2-1) in a 1 p.m. kickoff Sunday at Highmark Stadium, they can start to make that role reversal whole. Go from being the little brother that always loses in the rivalry to growing competitive and, finally, getting over the hump to overtake the team that once dominated them.
That’s the point the Dolphins look to reach, and that’s why Tagovailoa wasn’t settled with merely getting an early-season home win against Buffalo last year before dropping the regular-season meeting in Orchard Park and then the playoff elimination.
“You got to be consistent,” the Dolphins quarterback said this past week. “Getting over the hump, for any of us in the locker room, it’s not even close to the standard. You get over the hump, and that’s it? You can’t beat them anymore? That’s not what we are here (for) or that’s not what we all came here to do.”
As far as Week 4 games go, this is about as big as it gets. With a win, Miami would go up two games on the Bills, plus own an early tiebreaker by way of a road head-to-head victory, like the team also owns on the Patriots thanks to a win on “Sunday Night Football” two weeks earlier.
Tagovailoa certainly no longer looks at the Bills as some big, bad opponent. Facing them used to be filled with horrors: A 56-26 loss when a win would’ve gotten the 2020 team into the playoffs. A 35-0 loss in Week 2 of 2021 when Tagovailoa left after four pass attempts with fractured ribs. A 26-11 loss in Buffalo for a seventh consecutive loss later that season. Tagovailoa’s passer rating in those games: 62.5, 40.6, 58.2.
Seeing Buffalo twice last year, he was above 100 each time: 123.8 in the 21-19 home victory and 104.0 in the 32-29 loss at snowy Highmark Stadium.
Tagovailoa enters this one fresh off his first AFC Offensive Player of the Month award, a first for the Dolphins in 30 years. He is an early MVP front-runner who leads the NFL with his 121.9 quarterback rating and 10.1 yards per pass attempt.
On the other side, Allen has mostly dominated the Dolphins. He’s 8-2 in 10 regular-season meetings. In those games, Allen has 27 touchdowns to five interceptions for 2,684 yards on 63.8 percent passing.
But although Allen and the Bills squeaked out a win in that playoff game in January, Miami’s defense got to him a little bit, forcing three turnovers, including the strip-sack that resulted in defensive tackle Zach Sieler’s fumble recovery for a touchdown. Allen also made mistakes in last September’s loss at Hard Rock Stadium, throwing a pass into the ground when he had an open touchdown and running out of time on the final possession.
Allen has been turnover-prone last year and to start this season before picking things back up the past two weeks. He had four in the opening-week loss against the New York Jets
Allen has also had success against new Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio in two wins over Fangio when he was head coach of Denver: Four touchdowns, one interception, 544 passing yards on 66 percent passing. Fangio knows his defense must be aware of his throwing and running abilities.
“He’s a handful to play against,” Fangio said. “You always got to defend two plays — the play they call in the huddle and the play he can create on the run.”
The budding Dolphins-Bills rivalry has also sparked some internal rivalries among players. Dolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins has had his share of exchanges with Allen.
“That’s my guy,” Wilkins deadpanned this past week about seeing his familiar foe. “I love Josh Allen.”
While Tagovailoa answered many questions with his play last season, still, not many nationally would place him above Allen heading into this season. But that possibility is rising as Tagovailoa continues to excel, and head-to-head pairings offer Tagovailoa an opportunity to leapfrog him.
Beyond the quarterbacks, the Dolphins can also look to run against the Bills defense, which is not led by coordinator Leslie Frazier this season while he’s on sabbatical, no longer has Tremaine Edmunds in the middle and has safety Jordan Poyer out Sunday. In addition to the top passing offense, Miami has the top running offense following last week’s historic 70-20 win over the Broncos in which the team passed and ran for 350 yards or more. Buffalo had a rough time stopping the run against the Jets in Week 1, but has been better since.
The Bills could get an emotional jolt Sunday if safety Damar Hamlin sees snaps. With Poyer sidelined, Hamlin is expected to be active for a gam for the first time this season after suffering cardiac arrest on the field late last season in Cincinnati.
