Regarding the NFL, few players attract as much attention and speculation as Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. As we head into tonight’s game against the Detroit Lions, the betting line places Mahomes’s passing yards prop at 285.5.
Considering Mahomes’s track record, these odds have raised several eyebrows. Now in his seventh season in the league and sixth as a starter for the Chiefs, Mahomes has an impressive history in season openers. Out of his five previous season opener performances, he has surpassed the 285.5-yard mark in three games. Boil it down to averages, and you’ll find Mahomes boasting an average of 308 passing yards per game in his initial five season openers.
However, with the potential absence of star tight end Travis Kelce this evening, bettors and fans are grappling with a crucial question: Does Kelce’s presence, or lack thereof, significantly alter the calculus for Mahomes’s performance tonight?
But this is still Mahomes we’re talking about. Regardless of whether Kelce takes the field, expect Mahomes to drop back for more than 35 passes tonight. And it’s essential to consider the mind behind the playbook, head coach Andy Reid. Having observed him for over a decade during his tenure with the Philadelphia Eagles, it’s clear: Reid has rarely encountered a pass play he didn’t fancy.
Eric Bieniemy may have transitioned to Washington, but does anyone genuinely believe Reid will pivot to a run-heavy strategy? Not a chance. Reid is known for his love for the passing game.
Without Kelce, the Chiefs’ offense will adapt. While replacing Kelce is no small feat, we’ll likely see more running back utilization in short-pass situations and possible shifts with the outside wide receivers. A mid-game Kelce injury would pose a significant challenge, requiring immediate game plan alterations. However, given that the Chiefs are already aware of Kelce’s situation, they’ve undoubtedly prepared for both scenarios, with and without him.
So, think twice for those contemplating betting under Mahomes’s 285.5 passing yards prop. It’s Mahomes, after all.
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