The dog days of summer are upon us, and MLB action is the only sport to keep us going. As such, we’re breaking down Saturday’s action, highlighting several picks from the SportsGrid projections. We use a star rating to gauge each play’s success probability. These are some of our favorite selections from today’s MLB Game Picks.
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Week after week, the Oakland Athletics make a play that is so egregiously bad it makes you wonder how they’ve gotten this far. Today, that embarrassing characteristic comes with a betting advantage, as the SportsGrid model reveals a significant edge in backing the Chicago White Sox in this American League basement-dwelling showdown.
The A’s trot out JP Sears for tonight’s showdown in what’s sure to be another shellacking. Sears ranks in the second percentile in barrel rate, getting lit up to the tune of 12.7%. That’s contributing to a concerning .471 expected slugging percentage, putting him among the bottom 13% of MLB pitchers. Moreover, we’ve seen batters take advantage of that recently, with opponents slugging three home runs against Sears over his past couple of starts, inflating his ERA to 8.00 in August.
Additionally, that plays into the White Sox’s recent uptick in power. The Southsiders have swatted seven long balls over the last seven days, resulting in an increase in scoring and OPS.
According to our algorithm, that upward trajectory should continue as the White Sox claim victory as modest home favorites.
Fire mixes with gasoline as one of the hardest-hitting teams in the bigs hosts one of the most combustible arms. The AL-leading Baltimore Orioles have improved their offensive efficiency of late, a rating that gets even higher against Chris Flexen and the Colorado Rockies.
The O’s are crushing the ball this week. Over their previous five games, Baltimore has a .897 OPS while recording 6.3 runs per game. They are doing a lot of heavy lifting with the long ball, slugging ten home runs over that stretch, but they’ve also leveled up their power alley. Across the same time, Orioles hitters have tallied 11 doubles and a triple for the third-best slugging percentage in the MLB.
Analytically, Flexen rates as one of the worst pitchers out there. The soft-throwing righty ranks in the sixth percentile or worse in expected slugging percentage, batting average, and ERA. That’s clearly visible over his recent sample, with Flexen generously allowing 30 hits and six dingers over his last 22.0 innings pitched.
This total is too low for what both teams bring to the table. The Orioles could almost single-handedly send this inter-league battle over the total. We’re leaning into our model and taking the over in this one.
Recently, the Detroit Tigers have seen a surge in production, helping them win five of their past six games. However, that run is projected to come to an end in Saturday’s game against the Houston Astros. The Astros come into this contest as short favorites, leaving a substantive edge in taking them on the run line at plus money.
Hunter Brown is the probable starter poised to improve on his recent downturn in production. Brown’s given up five or more runs in two of his previous three starts, inflating his metrics beyond sustainable measures. The 24-year-old’s ERA is up to 7.02 this month, well above expected levels. The pendulum should start swinging the other way as his metrics work back down toward normal ranges.
Conversely, the Tigers are poised for regression. Detroit’s uptick in run production is primarily attributed to unsustainable home run metrics. Nine of the Tigers’ 38 hits this week were homers, accounting for most of their runs. Inevitably, their slugging percentage will fall back down into normal ranges, bringing their string of good fortune to an end.
We’re projecting those waves collide today, and the Astros leave Comerica Park as victors, covering the -1.5 run line.
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