Costume Design is one of the most overlooked categories at the Oscars. How many iconic outfits have there been in cinema that have helped to not only inform but shape the character adorning it? Darth Vader’s black suit. Jack Sparrow’s pirate get-up. Dumbledore’s robes. And that’s just looking at the more eccentric end of costume design (fantasy and sci-fi). Still, contemporary design can be just as iconic, such as the black and white suits in “Pulp Fiction,” Hannibal Lecter’s prison jumpsuit in “The Silence of the Lambs,” or any of the stunning outfits any one of Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Emily Blunt wear in “The Devil Wears Prada.”
With that in mind, let’s take a moment to appreciate those costume designers and take a look back at the last 10 winners. We’ll examine what sort of films most often win while also using that information to look ahead to this year’s contenders and see who is out in front.
Straight away, you can see how obvious it is that academy voters like period movies in this category. Seven out of these last 10 winners have been period movies. Four of those were dramas — Ann Roth‘s “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Jacqueline Durran‘s “Little Women,” Mark Bridges‘ “Phantom Thread,” and Catherine Martin‘s “The Great Gatsby.” Two of those were comedies — Jenny Beavan‘s “Cruella” and Milena Canonero‘s “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” And one of those was a fantasy film — Colleen Atwood‘s “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them.” However, it’s the period element that is important here. They all bring to life the clothing of a specific era that comes from real human history.
That leads me to the next takeaway — films grounded in reality are the preference here. Only three of these winners have brought to life the clothing of fictional worlds —Ruth E. Carter‘s “Black Panther” and “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and Beavan’s “Mad Max: Fury Road.” However, while both of those “Black Panther” movies costume the population of the fictional Wakanda, the tribes and societies seen in that world are based on or inspired by real people and groups in real life. So even that fantastical film has a direct relationship with real life.
Let’s take a look at each time period now. There are actually three films that are set in the 1920s — “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “Fantastic Beasts,” and “The Great Gatsby.” The academy clearly likes the swinging twenties, then. There are also two movies set in modern day: both “Black Panther” movies. However, both depict fictional worlds and people, while it may just be a case of the academy just loving the specific design work in this film rather than having a penchant for modern-day-set movies. There is only one movie set in the future — “Mad Max: Fury Road: — and the earliest film setting is the 1860s with “Little Women.” Six out of those winners are set in specific decades in the 20th century that have specific designs and looks that are instantly recognized as the eras they are. From this, then, we can assume that the academy’s preference in this category is fictional period movies set in a specific, recognizable decade in the 1900s.
With that information, let’s take a look at this year’s possible contenders. We haven’t yet released our odds chart for Best Costume Design but a quick look at the movie release calendar this year shows some obvious contenders. Firstly, there are a number of period films set in the 1900s that will have a great shot in this category. Martin Scorsese‘s “Killers of the Flower Moon” follows the true-life murders of several Osage tribe members in the USA in the 1920s. The costuming here is done by Jacqueline West, who has been nominated for four Oscars so far: “Quills” in 2001, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” in 2009, “The Revenant” in 2016, and “Dune” in 2022 (shared with Bob Morgan). She has never won. Christopher Nolan‘s “Oppenheimer” is a biopic following the creation of J. Robert Oppenheimer‘s atomic bomb. The movie is set in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s, so presents accurate clothing from all three decades. Ellen Mirojnick, who has never been nominated for an Oscar, is the costumer on this one.
“Asteroid City” is another period film contender set in the 1900s — this time in the 1950s as the story follows a writer who has a play about a family journeying to a rural city for a stargazing event. The legendary Canonero is the costume designer here — she’s won four Academy Awards before. Those wins came for “Barry Lyndon” in 1976 (shared with Ulla-Britt Söderlund), “Chariots of Fire” in 1982, “Marie Antoinette” in 2007, and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” in 2015. She’s also been nominated five more times on top of those wins. And then there is “Wonka.” This one is a curious entry as it isn’t entirely clear when it is set. Some publications have reported it is set in the 1920s or 1930s while others are stating it is set in the Victorian era. Either way, there is a heavy dose of fiction here, which will actually help its case. The blend between real-life time periods and heightened worlds/characters is a sweet spot in this category, as proven by “Cruella,” “Fantastic Beasts,” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” “Wonka” follows Timothée Chalamet as a young Willy Wonka on one of his earlier adventures. Lindy Hemming is the costume designer on duty here and she previously won this category in 2000 with “Topsy-Turvy.” That was her sole nomination.
“The Color Purple” is another period drama set in the 1900s. That film follows the struggles of an African American woman in the South of the USA in the early 1900s. Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, who has never been nominated for an Oscar, does the costume design for Blitz Bazawule‘s movie. The original Steven Spielberg film was nominated in this category in 1986 (Aggie Guerard Rodgers) although this version is specifically adapting the musical stage show. Musicals tend to do well in this category, with many being nominated in recent years: “West Side Story” in 2022, “Cyrano” in 2021, “Mary Poppins Returns” in 2019, “Beauty and the Beast” in 2018, and “La La Land” in 2017. All of those (bar “La La Land”) are period movies, too, but what musicals do so well that academy voters clearly admire is, again, that sense of heightened reality (particularly “La La Land”).
Speaking of heightened reality… there is also “Barbie,” which follows Margot Robbie as the titular Barbie who leaves the fictional Barbie Land to travel to the real world after having a midlife crisis. Weirdly, “Barbie” is most comparable to “Black Panther” — both have secret, other-worldly fictional lands hidden away in the real world while characters journey between both those fictional lands and real-life cities in the modern day. As such, there is a wonderful blend of contemporary design and exquisitely imagined heightened costumes in “Barbie.” What “Barbie” does very well is authentic artificiality and the iconic Durran could be the beneficiary of that. Durran has been nominated eight times in this category, winning twice — in 2013 for “Anna Karenina” and in 2020 for another Greta Gerwig movie, “Little Women.”
Also in contention is “Napoleon,” which is Ridley Scott‘s Joaquin Phoenix-starring biopic of the infamous French emperor. David Crossman and Janty Yates are on dual duties here. Crossman has never been nominated for an Oscar while Yates won Best Costume Design in 2001 for another of Scott’s historical epics: “Gladiator.” Historical epics set a couple of hundred years ago don’t do quite as well as you’d think in this category, but there are still some examples of those sorts of films being nominated: “Mulan” in 2021, “Mary Queen of Scots” in 2019, “The Revenant” in 2016, and “12 Years a Slave” in 2014.
There are a couple of sci-fi entries this year, too. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” follows Chris Pratt‘s Peter Quill and his fellow Guardians on a mission to save Rocket Raccoon (Bradley Cooper). Costume designer Judianna Makovsky was previously nominated for three Oscars — “Pleasantville” in 1999, “Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone” in 2001, and “Seabiscuit” in 2004. Denis Villeneuve‘s “Dune: Part Two” is also coming up, with the second part of the series following Chalamet’s Paul Altreides in a quest for revenge against those who destroyed his family in part one. The aforementioned West returns for costume duty, although Morgan does not. The fact that the first movie was nominated, however, is a good omen for this sequel.
So, those are the contenders. Based on the history of winners in this category and the academy’s clear preferences, it looks like “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “The Color Purple,” “Barbie,” “Dune: Part Two,” and “Asteroid City” are the five to beat at the moment, with “Oppenheimer,” “Napoleon,” “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” and “Wonka” hot on their heels. Let’s see how things play out.
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