The Eagles are the only team whose win total has gone up, but six teams are now expected to do even worse than originally projected.
When the 2023 NFL schedule was released in May, the start of the season felt like it was ages away. Now, the Lions-Chiefs opener is a little over two weeks from today.
Around the same time the schedule dropped, SI Sportsbook released win totals for each of the league’s 32 teams, most of which stayed static throughout the summer months. However, a few of them were bet up or down. The juice shifts often in response to the market but only seven teams saw their projected win total move up or down a full game over the last few months.
You can find updated preseason win totals for every team here.
Opening Win Total: 10.5
Current Win Total: 11.5
Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports
The defending NFC champions’ win total has been bet up to 11.5, which is tied with the Chiefs, Bengals and 49ers for the most in the league. The Eagles’ over/under was set at 8.5 last year with heavy juice on the over — it cashed before Thanksgiving as they tied for an NFL-high 14 victories. Philadelphia lost its offensive and defensive coordinators and multiple starters on both sides of the ball and expectations are still higher this season against a first-place schedule, no less. Clearly, bettors believe in Jalen Hurts and Co. coming off a Super Bowl appearance.
Open: 10.5
Current: 9.5
It’s curious that the Jaguars’ win total fell over the summer given the hype train that’s building for Trevor Lawrence heading into Year 3 (Year 2 with coach Doug Pederson — we don’t talk about the Urban Meyer experience). After a spotty start to 2022, Jacksonville went on a second-half tear to smash its preseason win total of 6.5 with a division-leading nine wins. Now, the Jags enjoy the benefits of playing the two worst divisions in football — the AFC South and NFC South — which should allow for some leeway despite defensive concerns.
Open: 9.5
Current 8.5
The Browns’ win total has dropped below its 2022 projection of 9.5, which factored in an 11-game suspension for quarterback Deshaun Watson. Now, Watson is set to play a full season for the first time since 2020 and expectations are actually lower, though the over is heavily juiced (-188). Cleveland is up against a last-place schedule but its division, the AFC North, is among the toughest in the league. A change at defensive coordinator, key additions to the defensive front and even average quarterback play should be enough to improve upon a seven-win season, but it remains to be seen just how much.
Open: 8.5
Current: 7.5
The Giants shattered expectations in Brian Daboll’s first year at the helm, grinding their way to a nine-win season and a playoff berth. Yet New York’s preseason win total of 7.5 is identical to its 2022 mark. The projection fell over the summer even though the front office found a way to bring back both Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley and add around them. An 8–4–1 record in one-score games could regress to the mean and the G Men are up against a tougher schedule in 2023 as they have to play both the NFC East and AFC East.
Open: 7.5
Current: 6.5
Kirby Lee/USA Today network
Expectations for the Rams are all over, which is par for the course for a team that won the Super Bowl in 2021, bottomed out a year later and is now in some sort of limbo between a title and a full-on tank job. Sean McVay and Aaron Donald decided to stick around and Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford are both back as well. Is that enough for a run, even in a weak NFC? Bettors seem to doubt it and projected No. 1 pick Caleb Williams will be defending his Heisman Trophy not far from SoFi Stadium this fall, offering further incentive to blow it up. Los Angeles had a preseason win total of 10.5 a year ago when it limped to five wins in McVay’s first losing season.
Open: 7.5
Current: 6.5
The Raiders’ decline makes the most sense of this set of teams. Las Vegas is relying on a quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo who has held up for a full season just once in his career. And though it seems that rushing leader Josh Jacobs will be back with the team by Week 1, his presence does little to quell concerns about one of the most trying schedules in the NFL. The defensive additions the Raiders made in the draft and free agency can only go so far to improving one of the league’s worst units. After a surprise playoff run in 2021, Las Vegas’ six wins fell shy of its projection of 8.5 in Year 1 under Josh McDaniels.
Open: 6.5
Current: 5.5
The Texans are projected for the second-fewest wins in the league with a rookie head coach in DeMeco Ryans and a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud. Houston will rightfully be found at the bottom of most power rankings coming off a three-win season and having not won more than four games since before the pandemic. However, notable in this case is that the Cardinals own the rights to the Texans’ 2024 first-round pick as a result of the Will Anderson Jr. trade, so there is absolutely no incentive for them to lose. Add in the fact that Houston has one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and there’s certainly a world in which this team outperforms expectations, though that hope largely rests on Stroud’s shoulders and Ryans’ ability to get the most out of this defense.
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