Falcon’s intensity may be at its peak but super typhoon status not ruled out

MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon Falcon (Khanun) further strengthened on Monday evening, July 31, possibly already reaching its peak intensity.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 11 pm on Monday that Falcon’s maximum sustained winds increased from 165 kilometers per hour to 175 km/h.

It is “likely to maintain its strength for the next 48 hours,” but PAGASA is not ruling out intensification into a super typhoon. A super typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h or above.

Meanwhile, Falcon’s gustiness is now up to 215 km/h from 205 km/h.

The typhoon was located 975 kilometers east northeast of extreme Northern Luzon on Monday evening, beginning to turn northwest at 15 km/h.

Due to its distance from Philippine landmass, Falcon is not bringing rain to the country and the raising of tropical cyclone wind signals “remains less likely.”

But PAGASA said on Monday evening that further shifts in Falcon’s track “may increase the likelihood” of wind signals being raised, “considering the expansive wind field of the typhoon.” Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 650 kilometers from its center.

Falcon also continues to enhance the southwest monsoon or habagat, which may cause more floods and landslides. Here is PAGASA’s updated rainfall forecast for the enhanced southwest monsoon:

Monday night, July 31, to Tuesday night, August 1

• 100-200 millimeters (mm): Zambales, Bataan
• 50-100 mm: Metro Manila, Cavite, Pangasinan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Occidental Mindoro, northern part of Palawan including Calamian, Cuyo, and Kalayaan islands

Tuesday night, August 1, to Wednesday night, August 2

• 100-200 mm: Zambales, Bataan
• 50-100 mm: Ilocos Region, Occidental Mindoro, northern part of Palawan including Calamian, Cuyo, and Kalayaan islands

Wednesday night, August 2, to Thursday night, August 3

• 50-100 mm: Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro

Gusty conditions due to the enhanced southwest monsoon will also persist in the following areas:

Tuesday, August 1

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Abra, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, central and southern parts of Aurora, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, most of Ilocos Region, most of Calabarzon, most of Mimaropa, most of Bicol, most of Western Visayas

Wednesday, August 2

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, most of Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, western part of Northern Samar, most of Western Visayas

Thursday, August 3

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Northern Samar, Western Visayas

On Tuesday, August 1, the enhanced southwest monsoon will also continue to trigger moderate to rough waters in the following seaboards:

• western seaboard of Luzon – waves 1.5 to 2.8 meters high
• southern seaboard of Luzon – waves 1.5 to 2.5 meters high
• northern seaboard of Luzon – waves 1.2 to 2.5 meters high

The weather bureau advised small vessels to take precautionary measures.

Falcon is still projected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Then it could pass south of Japan’s Okinawa Islands between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, August 2, followed by “a period of slow movement” over the East China Sea by Thursday, August 3.

“A period of weakening may begin on late Wednesday or early Thursday as it enters the cooler waters of the East China Sea and as upwelling of deep ocean waters, resulting from its slowdown, limits further development,” added PAGASA.

Falcon is the Philippines’ sixth tropical cyclone for 2023 and the third for July, coming right after Egay (Doksuri), which pummeled Northern Luzon as a typhoon. Two to four tropical cyclones had been expected for the month. – Rappler.com