When it comes to betting on football, It’s hard to argue why the favorite wouldn’t win in a lot of cases. This is especially true when you wager on a futures market for position leaders and their accomplishments. Superstar players like Patrick Mahomes, Justin Jefferson and Nick Chubb dominate year after year in their respective […]
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When it comes to betting on football, It’s hard to argue why the favorite wouldn’t win in a lot of cases.
This is especially true when you wager on a futures market for position leaders and their accomplishments. Superstar players like Patrick Mahomes, Justin Jefferson and Nick Chubb dominate year after year in their respective markets. However, this season, I see value elsewhere when it comes to the leaders. The following odds can be found on DraftKings.
Most regular season receiving yards: Miami Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill, 9-1
Justin Jefferson is the favorite at +550, which you could argue is a play you should make now before the number drops.
However, there’s value a bit further down the board with Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill at +900. Last season, he finished second behind Jefferson in both catches (119) and yards (1,710). The vet wideout also had the third most targets of all receivers, which should stay consistent heading into this season. Despite having to share targets with Jaylen Waddle, Hill was the clear first option for Tua Tagovailoa in his first season with the team. With a year of built chemistry between the two, along with many analysts believing this will be an even better season for Tagovailoa, who knows what the ceiling could look like for his No. 1 weapon.
Most regular season rushing yards: Las Vegas Raiders’ Josh Jacobs, 15-1
In what world does it make sense the previous season’s rushing leader has the fifth-longest odds at 15-1 to repeat what he made look so effortless? He finished with 1,653 yards — 115 more than Derrick Henry, who came in second. Even more impressive, he did it on nine fewer attempts than the Tennessee Titans running back.
The volume should be even more plentiful this season for Jacobs since Vegas’ current quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will be coming back from foot surgery. The team did rework the former San Francisco 49ers signal-caller’s contract to include an opt-out if he’s not healthy, so there’s no guarantee he will even be under center this season. That would leave Brian Hoyer as QB1. Translation: Jacobs will be the main weapon on this offense.
Most regular season passing yards: Minnesota Vikings’ Kirk Cousins, 10-1
Jefferson is the receiving yards leader favorite for a reason. His quarterback gets him the ball. You might not view Cousins as a top QB in the league, but he was right up there with Mahomes and Justin Herbert last season, statistically. Cousins finished with the fourth-most yards last season — a spot behind Tom Brady — which means he automatically has one less player to compete with for the accomplishment. He also finished with the fourth-most attempts and completions. Another factor to keep in mind is strength of schedule — the Vikings have the eighth-toughest schedule this season. Tighter games or playing from behind bodes well for the over on this play. Nothing should change as long as he has one of the best receivers in the game. I think there’s great value at 10-1.
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