Ultimately, the Republican Party’s efforts to get revenge on President Biden and his son will come at a steep cost.
The plea deal that President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, struck with the Department of Justice this week – which comes on the heels of Former President Donald Trump’s federal indictment – has enraged MAGA Republicans and prompted calls, even from the top echelons of the Republican Party, for political retribution.
By all indications, this case will hasten the radicalization of the Republican Party – by pulling it further out of the mainstream and away from an issues-oriented platform, and toward Trump’s extreme agenda. Congressional Republicans’ singular focus on exacting revenge for Trump’s personal grievances, in turn, will undermine their party’s viability in 2024, as it did in the most recent national election.
With respect to the terms of the plea deal in question, Hunter Biden – who was charged in a five-year investigation by the Trump-appointed Delaware U.S. Attorney – made an agreement with the Department of Justice to plead guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges in exchange for avoiding prosecution on a gun charge, as long as he remains drug-free for two years and never owns a firearm again. He will likely avoid prison time if he abides by the probation rules. The only thing that remains unsettled is whether Hunter Biden’s plea bargain resolves, at least for the time being, the allegations of money laundering, influence peddling, and Foreign Agent Registration Act issues that have been separately leveled against the president’s son.
Despite the vast differences between this case and Trump’s – who was recently charged with 37 felony counts related to his mishandling of classified documents, obstructing justice, and making false statements – Republican have seized on Hunter Biden’s plea deal to peddle a false narrative about an imbalanced justice system and a corrupt Department of Justice.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy claimed that the agreement “continues to show the two-tier system in America,” which he later clarified to mean, “If you are the president’s leading political opponent, D.O.J. tries to literally put you in jail and give you prison time. If you are the president’s son, you get a sweetheart deal.”
To be sure, these claims have no basis in the truth, and again, the First Son’s and the Former President’s federal cases could not be more dissimilar. Despite the inflammatory remarks made by the political right, Hunter Biden’s minor crimes did not stem from corruption, but rather from personal tragedy relating to substance abuse and addiction. Meanwhile, Trump has been charged with willingly and knowingly retaining and brandishing classified national secrets at his golf clubs, obstructing a federal investigation, and lying to authorities. It also must be noted that Hunter Biden clearly admitted wrongdoing by entering a guilty plea, something Trump has thus far refused to do.
Moreover, as legal experts have argued, the fact that the federal government did bring charges against Hunter Biden is evidence that there is in fact not a two-tiered system of justice, as the punishments levied were actually somewhat harsher than what is standard in these cases. The tax charges that were filed against him are rarely brought against first-time offenders, and lying on a gun purchase form infrequently leads to prosecution.
Yet, these key distinctions are not of remote importance to Trump and his allies, who will continue decrying the alleged ‘weaponization’ of the Department of Justice by President Biden without regard for the facts or the damage that their claims could inflict on trust in our justice system.
This messaging inherently plays to Trump’s advantage in the presidential primary race, and increases the likelihood that he will become his party’s nominee, having demonstrated a remarkable ability to shore up support among GOP voters by positioning himself as a purported victim of the left-wing establishment.
Further, House Republicans are now certain to launch investigations into the Biden family in retaliation, which will dominate the remainder of the congressional session. Speaker McCarthy has more or less suggested this will be the case, and said that the plea deal will “enhance” his caucus’ probes into the president and his son – which are political in nature, and have thus far failed to uncover any evidence of wrongdoing.
Taken together, the political events that will likely be precipitated by Hunter Biden’s plea deal only stand to weaken the Republican Party’s prospects in the upcoming national elections.
As long as Trump and his baggage remain at the center of the national conversation, the GOP will suffer electorally. A new CNN poll found that the majority (61%) of Americans approve of the federal indictment of Trump in the classified documents case, including two-thirds (67%) of Independent Voters. Additionally, most Americans (59%) want Trump to end his presidential campaign now.
House Republicans should also be wary of the potential risk associated with overstepping in their investigations into President Biden and his son, which voters believed the GOP did in the late 1990s with their probe into President Bill Clinton.
Independent Counsel Ken Starr released his report against President Clinton in September of 1998, and the House of Representatives authorized an impeachment inquiry in October of 1998, just one month before the midterm elections. The result? That was the first midterm election since 1934 where the president’s party gained seats in the House of Representatives.
Ultimately, the Republican Party’s efforts to get revenge on President Biden and his son will come at a steep cost – to their party’s viability, to an American public that craves solutions on real issues, and to trust in our democratic institutions, which will be diminished in the process.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
