The beginning of Dereck Lively’s tenure at Duke was somewhat restrained due to a persistent calf injury. However, as the season progressed, so did his performance. Despite an initial average of just 4.4 points over his first 21 appearances, Lively significantly amped up his output to an average of 6.5 points per game in his final 13 starts.
Will Dereck Lively be a top-10 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft?
His incredible streak of blocking an average of 3.0 shots per game over his last 18 games of the season highlighted his defensive prowess and secured him as one of the most formidable shot-blockers in this year’s draft class.
FanDuel Odds
Lively is -150 to be a top-10 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.
Reasons He Will
The argument can easily be made that Lively is the preeminent defensive big man in this year’s draft class, as he boasted the nation’s highest defensive box plus-minus last season. He excels in providing help defense in the paint, assisting teammates who have been beaten by a dribble drive. His swift footwork, elite shot-blocking abilities, and impeccable timing make him a standout in drop coverage. Furthermore, Lively’s skill at closing out and disrupting rim attacks without committing fouls underscores his defensive value.
Reasons He Won’t
Lively’s offensive capabilities remain largely underwhelming. He lacks a presence on the perimeter and seemingly doesn’t possess a go-to post move or a varied offensive repertoire. This is undoubtedly the most glaring limitation and concern regarding his overall game. Though Lively will likely provide immediate defensive contributions for any team he joins, he’ll need time to elevate his offensive skills to NBA standards.
Our Projection
Given his limited offensive skill set, Lively is likely to be seen primarily as a rotational player. Nonetheless, his raw talent and high school record suggest the potential for offensive development. He might require some nurturing, but his defensive skills, especially his ability to protect the rim in a league moving away from mid-range shooting, make him an appealing prospect. Lively is projected to be a lottery pick for a team looking to bolster its frontcourt strength.
Buy or Sell?
We’re buying Lively going in the top 10 in the 2023 NBA Draft
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