BOSTON — There have been absolutely zero certainties in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals, as the Celtics and Heat have provided a theatrical series that has taken every possible turn.
Well, maybe not zero certainties.
The Celtics entered as the No. 2 seed, with most prognosticators having them advance to the NBA Finals with relative ease over the No. 8-seeded Heat. That did not happen. Miami jumped out to a 3-0 series lead, causing the tides to turn and setting Boston up to be upset in short order. Nope, that obviously didn’t happen,. either, considering Memorial Day marks Game 7. Jimmy Butler appeared to drive home the final nail in the coffin when he sank three free throws to give the Heat a lead with just three seconds left in Game 6. Derrick White had other plans, however.
So, in a series full of all that, what exactly could be considered a certainty entering the most uncertain situation in all of sports? Caleb Martin.
Martin has been absolutely incredible for the Heat, becoming their most reliable scorer whether it be off the bench or in the starting lineup. He’s averaged over 18 points per game on 58.3% shooting from the field, the best mark for any player in the series with at least 50 shot attempts. In looking at all of that, it’s easy to see how the Over is 6-0 on Martin’s point total in the series, per BetMGM Sportsbook data analyst John Ewing. His point total for the most important game of his career is 15.5 at BetMGM, the highest it has been all series. But it does have +100 odds on the Over.
Though the betting public loves Martin, they’re not so convinced White will ride his Game 6 heroics to a big performance Monday. The second most bet player prop at BetMGM, behind the Over on Martin, is the Under on White’s point total of 14.5. The 28-year-old has scored 15 or more points only twice in the series.
It isn’t just individual player props that favor the Heat, as the betting public is all over Miami in its quest to prevent history.
The public has placed 81% of their bets on the Heat to win, with Miami earning +310 odds from BetMGM. Those bets accounted for 65% of the total money bet on the game. Those who had less of an inclination the Heat would win still had a line to bet, as the Celtics enter as 7.5-point favorites.
Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals is set for 8:30p.m. ET on Monday.
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