'98% likelihood' that Earth will soon be hotter than ever

In January, the World Meteorological Organization reported that the last eight years were confirmed to be the eight warmest on record. Considering the growing strength of hurricanes, massive expansion of wildfires, and general increase in extreme weather events, it may seem that things are already pretty bad. They are. But they’re about to get worse.

Because as the WMO looks at the next five years, they not only expect more record heat, but also more of the associated disasters. They also expect Earth to move past an important political and psychological milestone regarding the climate crisis.

There is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.  There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.

That 1.5°C was the target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. The goal was to stay permanently below that line. Now that barrier could be about to fall.