While Republican Rep. Bryan Steil had no trouble winning reelection last year in a southeastern Wisconsin seat that only narrowly backed Donald Trump, one prominent Democrat thinks that 2024 could be very different―and he may be right, especially if the incoming progressive majority on the state Supreme Court strikes down the state's gerrymandered congressional map. A notable Democrat is also mulling a campaign to the northeast against Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher around Green Bay, but as we’ll discuss, his 8th District would likely be a tough lift even with new boundaries.
We’ll start in the 1st District, where Steil was elected in 2018 to succeed none other than Speaker Paul Ryan. Following the most recent round of redistricting, the new map dropped Trump’s 2020 margin of victory from 54-45 to just 50-48, but the incumbent won his third term last year by a comfortable 54-45 spread against an underfunded foe. Liberals fared considerably better here, though, in last month’s officially nonpartisan Supreme Court race, as analyst Drew Savicki calculated that progressive Janet Protasiewicz carried the district 53-47 as part of her 56-44 statewide rout.
