One of the biggest mysteries of the past Grammy cycle was the Best New Artist race, which seemed relatively weak and uncertain compared to past years. That said, the lineup ended up including some great acts from pop, American roots, alternative, jazz, R&B, and hip-hop, with the winner being jazz singer extraordinaire Samara Joy. This year let’s put on our thinking caps early to see what’s brewing in the race, which might be shaping up to be equally exciting.
Perhaps the most popular new artist right now is New York-based rapper Ice Spice. Ice has managed a couple of big hits, including the pop crossover “Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2,” alongside PinkPantheress. Both Ice and PinkPantheress look to be heavy favorites for the award, as “Boy’s a Liar” is one of the biggest hits of the eligibility season so far. Ice Spice is arguably a bigger new star and has achieved more Billboard hits, but Pink might be more in line with what voters go for. Still, female rappers have won here before: Megan Thee Stallion’s victory wasn’t long ago, after all. So, it’s possible that in the end, Ice Spice could garner enough respect and popularity for a win, especially if she has an even bigger summer cycle.
Another contender with a big hit is RAYE, who has seen success with her track “Escapism” featuring 070 Shake. RAYE is, admittedly, a one-hit wonder as of right now in the United States. However, her album “My 21st Century Blues” is acclaimed, earning an 82 on Metacritic, and she has a very compelling narrative: her label didn’t allow her to release her debut album for years. This narrative is likely to garner sympathy from recording academy members, many of whom are independent artists like RAYE and would love to support a fellow indie standing up for musicians. RAYE has also been doing some great campaigning, hitting key spots like NPR’s “Tiny Desk Concert” and late night TV shows like “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” and “Jimmy Kimmel Live.”
The ladies could also be joined by Coi Leray, who has a big hit this year with “Players.” Leray has been buzzing for a couple years now, which could help her case as she’s likely already somewhat familiar to many in the music community. She’s also had a couple other lesser-known hits like the Hot 100 top-40s “No More Parties” and “Blick Blick,” so voters could also be comforted by knowing that she doesn’t seem to be a flash in the pan. Leray has a few more singles in store for this year, so who knows if she can ascend to lock status by voting time.
Similar to Leray, another artist building momentum for a while has been Coco Jones, although her hit “ICU” is her first to chart. Jones, who got her big break on the Disney Channel in the 2010s, has already gotten BNA nominations from the Soul Train Awards and the NAACP Awards, winning the latter. As such, and with a hit on her hands this time around, it’s possible that R&B voters will have her back and carry her to a nomination.
Mexican singer-songwriter Peso Pluma is also an increasingly noteworthy name in music right now. The Latin artist has made history by bringing traditional Mexican styles like corridos onto the mainstream charts, including multiple Hot 100 hits like the top-10 “Ella Baila Sola.” Peso Pluma could be a harder sell to many academy members compared to his English-speaking counterparts, not only because of the language barrier but also due to the fact that his style of music isn’t what they might be used to from contemporary Latin artists, which is typically pop or reggaeton. That said, it would be a deserved achievement. Additionally, we have seen voters be more open to Hispanic music: Rosalía and Anitta have been nominated for Best New Artist, and Bad Bunny made history last year with an Album of the Year nomination for his smash “Un Verano Sin Ti.” So perhaps voters are aware of what’s currently happening with Peso Pluma and pick him up for a nomination.
A couple of more indie-leaning acts are also on the lookout. Lizzy McAlpine has had great success with her first hit, “Ceilings,” and could get a nomination or two. It helps that McAlpine has been working with Grammy favorites like Finneas and Jacob Collier, and has, similar to RAYE, hit up some great campaigning spots, like her own “Tiny Desk Concert.” Singer-songwriter Gracie Abrams released her debut album “Good Riddance” with the help of acclaimed producer Aaron Dessner. Abrams is very likely to be the first or second listed on the alphabetical ballot, and she’s going in with acclaim from artists like Phoebe Bridgers and Taylor Swift, the latter of whom she’s opening for on tour. There’s also electronic producer Fred Again, who went viral recently with his own breathtaking “Tiny Desk Concert.” Fred is likely acclaimed by British-based voters as well, as his album “Actual Life 3” was nominated at the last Brit Awards for Album of the Year, a major feat for an electronic record.
There’s still time for the Best New Artist race to pick up even more steam, but as of now there doesn’t seem to be a consensus frontrunner. So watch out for any artist. If last year’s lineup taught us anything, it is that voters are far more diverse than we might realize.
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify record executives and music stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where thousands of showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
