The speaker has little intra-GOP margin for error as he seeks unity on his opening offer to the White House. And yellow lights are starting to flash.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy is trying to push past rising anxiety in his GOP ranks by muscling through a debt-limit plan stocked with conservative priorities. That's already looking difficult.
During House Republicans' first private meeting in weeks, McCarthy and his leadership team laid out the basics of an opening strategy to relieve the nation's looming debt crisis — a proposal the speaker previewed at a high-profile Monday speech on Wall Street. But while GOP leaders still hope to turn that plan into a formal bill within days, a handful of disgruntled members made clear inside the morning meeting that achieving unity would take more time.
“I’m not there yet,” Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) said, adding that she wants more GOP policy goals included as leverage before McCarthy shows his party's offer to Democrats. “We have to have a plan. You’re going to walk into the debt ceiling vote without a plan? That’s not going to bode well for the outcome.”
House Republicans' internal frustrations go beyond their long-stalled debt limit talks with President Joe Biden. The conference is near its breaking point over a contentious border bill that has exposed divisions between hardline conservatives and politically vulnerable purple-district members. Then there are the simmering tensions that no GOP lawmaker wants to talk about — the evident disconnect between the speaker and his budget chief, as well as chatter over the elevation of a new McCarthy lieutenant with a vast portfolio.
House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), who appeared to diverge from McCarthy last month on the GOP's plans for its fiscal blueprint, said as he entered Tuesday's morning meeting that "I hope we're focused on our mission." Arrington added pointedly: “We don't need distractions. We need to unify."
And he got his wish that McCarthy not bring up any behind-the-scenes drama before the rest of their colleagues. Talk of McCarthy-Arrington discord did not come up at the private conference meeting, according to six lawmakers in the room.
Instead, Republicans focused on presenting a unified front on the debt limit as they prepare for a new, more urgent phase of their political jostling with the Biden White House. The fact that no internal rifts got rehashed on Tuesday morning is a positive sign for McCarthy, who has almost no room for error on his debt plan given his four-vote majority.
Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a close McCarthy ally, dryly summed up the meeting's tone: “It’s a chorus of unity and sunshine.”
Inside the room, according to one attendee, McCarthy ticked through a brief slideshow laying out the basic principles of his fiscal plan — which includes a passel of deregulatory and energy provisions as well as steep federal spending cuts in exchange for a one-year lift to the nation's debt ceiling.
One major part of Tuesday's private GOP conversation centered on whether leaders should try to pay down the national debt by repealing elements of Democrats' marquee tax, climate and health care measure passed last year, including funding for new IRS enforcement and green tax incentives.
Many GOP lawmakers have demanded party leaders make those moves, though some aides and budget experts say it's unclear whether they would yield any real savings. McCarthy addressed that topic by laying out pros and cons in his slides, per the meeting attendee who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Some of McCarthy’s closest advisers projected confidence that they would have enough support in a conference. Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), a confidant of the California Republican, simply said “yes” to reporters who asked if the speaker would get a majority.
Other Republicans, however, are preparing for the prospect that McCarthy's plan fails to get enough traction within the conference.
At least one member, first-term swing-district Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), raised the idea of a separate discharge petition as a Plan B approach if the threat of an economically disastrous debt default began to loom over members.
As he left Tuesday's meeting, though, Lawler insisted that he backs McCarthy’s plan: “The speaker has put forth a plan and I support it.”
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), one of McCarthy’s harshest critics in the past, said leadership doesn’t yet have the votes because members haven’t seen the full plan on paper.
“We still have to resolve major questions like the dollar amount, and the duration, and the policy concessions we are seeking from the Senate. So it couldn't possibly have 218 votes, because it doesn't even exist,” Gaetz said, adding that he won’t “prognosticate the end-zone dance before we draw the game plan.”
Those flashing yellow lights haven't stopped McCarthy allies from bullishly predicting that a bill could be ready for a floor vote next week. Republicans close to leadership privately said text could be released as soon as Wednesday or Thursday — with some expecting the House to put off its next recess until passage of a debt plan that stands no chance of becoming law.
Yet in order to write that bill, GOP lawmakers still have to settle crucial questions like whether to lift the ceiling by a specific dollar amount and when the fight might come up again next year.
“Some had a few little tweaks they’d like to see to it. But I think, in general, everyone is supportive of it,” Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Mo.) said, adding that “everyone’s got good ideas. They are all supportive of the general idea and program that the speaker laid out.”
Meanwhile, an immigration fight is about to compete with the debt for the House GOP’s attention.
Republicans will formally kick off work on border security, with the Judiciary Committee slated to vote on an immigration package Wednesday and the Homeland Security panel set to follow with its own bill next week. But months after leadership initially vowed action within the first few weeks of the year, there are few signs that the GOP is any closer to a bill that can pass the House.
Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who discussed the issue alongside the GOP-helmed Congressional Hispanic Conference earlier Tuesday, warned that the Judiciary Committee proposal isn’t ready for “prime time." Gonzales, who's taken a public stand against conservatives pushing for a strident border bill, pledged not to be sidelined by his party's right flank.
“In this Congress, five votes is 100,” Gonzales said, referring to the ease with which only a handful of Republicans can derail a bill on the floor, given the party's slim majority.
And even as House Republicans publicly brushed off reports of contention within their upper ranks, some leaders are hearing hush-hush questions about McCarthy's confidence in his own team.
Some rank-and-file members, reading reports of internal strife, started asking leadership "‘This is terrible, is this true?’" said one senior House Republican, who requested anonymity to speak frankly.
"It’s not true,” this senior Republican added.
