The first round gets shaken up.
We’re entering the final stretch of NFL Draft season. At this point the mocks are starting to align with what we’re learning about the teams at the top, and we should be reaching a fairly safe facsimile of what will happen next week in the first few picks.
Everything will go off the rails. It does every year, and 2023 could be wilder than most depending on how much of a feeding frenzy there is for quarterbacks at the top of the draft. There’s as much of a chance we’ll see teams fall over themselves to try and get a top passer, or it become eerily quiet at QB until the top defensive players are off the board.
The consensus right now might be that we’ll see pass rushers go before a second QB, but not in the latest mock draft from Mel Kiper and Todd McShay who alternated for a full three round mock. Here’s what jumped out.
This has quickly become the lock at the top of the board. Right now all signs point to the Panthers vastly preferring Young to C.J. Stroud after doing their homework, which seemed like a long shot a couple of weeks ago. This flies in the face of what Frank Reich has traditionally liked in his passers, but Young is a rare talent when it comes to working out of structure and improvising with the ball in his hands.
This really isn’t that much of a surprise. The Levis hype was locked in silly season back when there were rumors he’d go No. 1 overall. Even top 5 seemed like a mammoth reach. In this mock he falls to No. 11 to the Titans. This is about as high as anyone should be comfortable taking someone who is so much of a risk at the next level.
We’ve seen in Cincinnati with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase just how strong a unit can be formed by getting two college players in sync, and the Texans try their hand in 2023. Taking C.J. Stroud at the No. 2 pick, and then Jaxon Smith-Njigba at No. 12 is bold, but could really turn the team’s fortunes around in a hurry.
Pre-draft hype has gotten ridiculous when it comes to Paris Johnson Jr. Once a lock to be the first OT off the board, even potentially a top-five pick, this mock has him falling all the way to the Patriots at No. 14. There’s a mock draft tendency to always give the Pats these genius first round sliders, and this is no different. I’ll listen to arguments that Peter Skoronski is better (he goes No. 9 to the Bears in this mock), but Johnson Jr. going after Skoronski and Broderick Jones feels ridiculous.
Every single mock forever has had this pick locked it, and it’s not going to happen. A running back in the top-10 will not occur, even as good as Robinson is. Hell, McShay makes the pick and even he says this won’t happen — before mocking him to Philly anyway.
If this mock draft stays true we could see the Lions end up with one of the scariest pass rushing units we’ve ever seen. With the No. 6 pick they take Tyree Wilson out of Texas Tech, then at No. 18 they land DT Calijah Kancey out of Pitt. Put them with Aidan Hutchinson and I’m terrified for offensive lines that have to face this team.
Another pre-draft hype machine, I’m fully on board with Hooker landing at the top part of the second round. In this mock he goes at No. 37 to the Seahawks, which feels a little iffy on landing spot — but I get it. Hooker needs a lot of work to adjust to the NFL... a lot of work. Part of me thinks the Seahawks are smarter than to invest a top pick on a project like this.
You’re going to hear a lot about how ludicrous this TE class is, and it’s true. While not the sexiest position to look at pre-draft, this is truly a bumper crop of players, many of whom would go much higher in any other draft. Kiper and McShay have nine TEs going in the first three rounds, compared to four in 2022 over the same span. If your team needs a tight end this is a great class to find value.
