The Houston Texans do not have an illustrious history. Even as an expansion franchise barely two decades old, the Texans are usually an afterthought.
Part of that Houston misfortune is connected to rampant mismanagement. Part of it is connected to never having a legitimate franchise quarterback. In a way, those two ideas are completely intertwined.
It’s mind-boggling that a new Texans regime would even entertain continuing this charade of inconsistency under center. But that may well be the plan of general manager Nick Caserio and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans.
According to Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, the Texans are seriously considering passing on a potential franchise quarterback of the future with the No. 2 overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. ESPN’s Adam Schefter echoed a similar sentiment in a recent NFL Live segment.
"I don't think it's a lock that Houston is going QB at 2"
—@AdamSchefter on what he thinks the Texans will do at the top of the draft pic.twitter.com/yVNP5gipRg
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) April 11, 2023
Yes, even while armed with the fortune of the second-best draft asset possible to start over, the Caserio-Ryans brain trust instead may elect to build up other, far less important aspects of their roster.
Here’s more on the Texans’ overcautiousness at quarterback from Sports Illustrated and Breer:
“Let’s look at the history of the guys in charge. General manager Nick Caserio has been in the NFL for 22 seasons. Over that time, over all the drafts he’s been a part of, the highest his team has drafted a quarterback was 62nd. That pick was Jimmy Garoppolo. Davis Mills, who the Texans took 66th two years ago, would be second on that list. Meanwhile, new coach DeMeco Ryans, over six years in San Francisco, saw one quarterback taken higher than that, and the Niners got to three NFC title games with quarterbacks other than Trey Lance.
That’s why I don’t think Caserio and Ryans will reach on a guy they’re not 100 percent sold on with the second pick (maybe they’d be more open to a dice roll later in the draft). Both guys have seen teams built in other ways, and both have seen teams find quarterbacks in other ways. So if anyone will be open to it, it’d be these two guys.”
It’s worth noting that reports and way-too-coincidental speculation like this from two well-connected people in NFL media should still probably be taken with a grain of salt. It is, after all, silly season, where any number of teams are trying to put out smokescreens for their draft plans. The Texans could merely be operating that way here, trying to throw someone off the scent of their grand design.
On the flip side, someone like Ryans could be looking at the situation of his former employer, the San Francisco 49ers, and be ignoring everything they had to overcome just because they didn’t have a quality quarterback.
I think these sentiments are valid because where there’s smoke, there’s fire. And bettors on the 2023 draft should adjust their wagers on Houston’s plans accordingly.
Currently, names like C.J. Stroud (-145) and Bryce Young (+300) are still the betting market’s favorites to wear the Texans’ uniform in the fall. But Will Anderson is right there, ripe for the taking at +500 odds. He’s arguably the best defensive player in the draft — maybe the best overall player in the entire class. He fits the exact mold of a foundational defender that someone like Ryans — who is used to winning with defense — would probably love to build around.
There is also an opportunity for a trade-down, but do we really think that Ryans would let the Texans pass up a potential generational edge defender like Anderson? Fat chance. The man has a six-year contract. It’s readily apparent they’ll allow him and Caserio to execute their vision as they please with patience.
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Even if the rationale of the Texans waiting to take a quarterback is preposterous — overlooking the notion it’s easier to win with a difference-making passer than not — no one should be surprised they’re considering this possibility.
The Texans are used to rebuilding. By potentially ignoring a signal caller at No. 2, it seems they’re happy to continue promising brighter days while never delivering on their word.
