We give you prime choices for T-5 and T-10 finishers, a few outright plays, and first-round leaders.
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With Augusta National and The Masters in the rear-view mirror, the PGA Tour heads to Hilton Head Island in South Carolina for the 2023 RBC Heritage from Harbour Town Golf Links. This event has been promoted to an âelevatedâ status on the schedule this season. With that, a plethora of the Tour’s elite will be here to compete for the increased prize money and the red plaid jacket donned upon the winner’s circles on late Sunday afternoon.
This 7,121-yard Par 71 iconic course is a Pete Dye & Jack Nicklaus that has been a staple on the PGA Tour, highlighted by its small Bermuda greens lined with tight fairways and strategically placed bunkers. There is a premium placed on accuracy over length off the tee and on hitting these small greens in regulation, as the average percentage of GIRs at Harbour Town is historically nearly 8% lower than the Tour average.
Players can expect to hit around 40% more approach shots from 150-175 and 175-200 yards than they would on an average week, so keep an eye on proximity stats when diving into a model.
Furthermore, many will tout those with great course history at the RBC Heritage when filling out their betting cards, but that would not be comparing apples to apples as many of those competitions had much weaker fields than what is in store this week with the newly elevated status.
Last year Jordan Spieth clipped Patrick Cantlay on the first hole of a sudden-death playoff to take home the title on a Sunday where it felt like as many as a dozen players had a legitimate chance to win. With a winning score that usually lands in the low teens, expect the same this year which figures to be a great tournament before a lull in the schedule leading up to next month’s PGA Championship at Oakmont.
The Heritage Top 10 FinishersRookie Davis Thompson is a player who has shown prowess on Pete Dye courses (2nd at the American Express in January) and can make birdies in bunches. He has been excellent all season long in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee, ranking 17th on Tour this season.
Even though he has had two straight disappointments with his iron play, I think the price is ripe to back him on a long-shot Top 10 prop (+1100) in addition to First Round Leader (+12000).
Along with Thompson, I like Australian Cameron Davis for the same two bets (+1400 to place in the Top 10 and +10000 to be First Round Leader). After struggling for much of this season due to an unnamed illness, Davis has returned with a solid performance at the PLAYERS (T-6th) and an unbelievable bounce back second round at the Valero Texas Open, which saw him pour in nine birdies on Friday.
Even though he missed the cut due to his opening round 80, ceilings like this for one round make players like Davis an attractive first-round leader choice. Davis also ranks 3rd in this field in Birdies-or-Better gained on Pete Dye courses, and he has a T-3rd and T-25th finish to his name on his two starts at the RBC Heritage.
The Masters Top 5 Finishers and Outright WinnersMy first outright bet for the week is on Keith Mitchell at the ripe price of +10000, and I will be backing that up with his Top 5 prop at +1400. Mitchell has played outstanding golf this season on Tour, with three Top 10 finishes in his 11 of 13 cuts made. Mitchell is elite off the tee (1st on Tour in Total Driving via PGATour.com), but not only due to distance.
He finds the short grass with his driver 65.67% of the time, good for 20th in that department this season. He has mentioned that he has tried to improve the short game over the past few seasons, and even though he barely ranks out positively with his putter, he does perform his best on Bermuda green surfaces.
Max Homa’s outright win odds have ballooned too high at +2900 to pass on for someone with the win equity that the 32-year-old Californian has. The six-time winner has had three straight disappointing performances with his putter, something that is due to regress to the mean in short order with one of the best in the sport. His Strokes Gained: Approach numbers have actually been better over his last five starts (4.8 gained per event) than during his most recent stretch of multiple wins, so right now is the perfect time to back him to catch fire on the greens.
Although he finished in a tie for 16th place last week at Augusta National, it was most likely seen as a disappointment for Sungjae Im and his backers. Im was a pick of mine and many others to win The Masters, and he did show what he is capable of there with the low score of the third round (-5, 67) in the worst playing conditions of the week. There is some rain and wind in the forecast at Hilton Head for Friday and Saturday. So, if those prognostications become a reality, his chances should only get better to be in the mix throughout the tournament.
Regardless of the weather, I am backing Sungjae at +550 for a Top 5 and +2600 for an outright win for someone whose arrow is trending up in all four major strokes gained categories. The stats show that the 25-year-old South Korean has shown an affinity for Pete Dye courses. Over the field’s past 24 rounds on Dye tracks, Im ranks 3rd Off The Tee, 4th Tee to Green, 8th in Ballstriking, and 9th Around the Green.
It has been nearly 18 months since his last PGA Tour victory, and I believe this is the week the drought ends for one of the best ball strikers in the world.
Final Betting Card
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
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